Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Mortgage Rates Rise Across the Board

Word of the Week:

hesitates3rd person singular present of hes·i·tate (Verb)

1. Pause before saying or doing something, esp. through uncertainty.
2. Be reluctant to do something.  More »

Seems a lot of conforming mortgage folks missed the low 4% rates and never locked. He who hesitates loses. The price of borrowed mortgage money has risen about .50% in the last few weeks. We have seen increases especially on fixed jumbo loan products and fixed conforming government backed(taxpayer). This is pressuring home shoppers especially. We have heard from a lot of realtors that the recent rapid rate increases has resulted in clients waiting or being forced to downgrade or offer less on the property. It really is about the payment for all but the top 1-2% of earners. 

For a client borrowing a cool million on a jumbo mortgage, a .50% rate move is not insignificant. From 5% on a 30Y Fixed Jumbo Loan in late November to the first week of the new decade at 5.50% for a very well qualified borrower, moves the payment from $5368 to $5677. Long run that is over 100k in additional interest cost. Higher or lower from here? Biased higher. Nothing more concrete as Mr Jumbo Mortgage's crystal ball is in for warranty repair in a small Turkish village. Great Charts Below:

Job Market Improvement Boosts Jumbo Loan Rates

ADP reports:
Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised down but only slightly, from the previously reported increase of 93,000 to an increase of 92,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate. After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000. Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report.
This latest report came in very strong vs estimates of about 100k new jobs added in this period. This has resulted in an small early morning rally on Wall St. Stocks  are slightly higher but the biggest change is a rise in the 10Y Treasury from 3.33% to 3.45% as of 12:11 EST. We have seen a boost in mortgage rates across the board. Market based jumbo loan programs are up about .125%-.25% from yesterdays best levels. The plane is boarding don't be late before the captain shuts the door on 5% fixed jumbo loan rates.