IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability”. In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started. Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort Recession in America / America's vulnerable economy
Also in case you think BusinessWeek and The Economist forgot to take their anti-depressants I would encourage you to think about what the CEO of the one largest banks in the US said today:
Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf dropped the "D" word today: "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression," Stumpf said at a banking conference in New York. Stumpf said the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender and fifth-largest U.S. bank was "not immune" from the storm, but was well-positioned to ride it out, despite expectations for "elevated" credit losses from home equity loans into 2008. Are we in a recession? Post your thoughts or anecdotal evidence. Free speech still works here.