Thursday, December 31, 2009

Happy New Year! It's a BLUE MOON....

Happy New Year. 
May You Have a Prosperous 2010. It's twenty ten.  

BTW, look at the Blue Moon Tonight. They only occur once every 19 years.

Below is from Dr. Oz via

Mehmet Oz, M.D.

Vice-Chair and Professor of Surgery at Columbia University, author, radio and TV show host

 Here are my suggested resolutions for 2010: Have more sex, get more sleep, and never let yourself feel hungry. Sound hedonistic? These three resolutions will save and lengthen your life, and they are very realistic and noble goals. New Year's resolutions were never so much fun -- it's all in how you see it. Let's think about it for a minute, shall we?

Like millions of others, you are waking up on New Year's Day with the best of intentions. It's a new year and time for a clean slate. Resolutions come in all shapes and sizes and they are as varied as the people who make them. I get very excited about New Year's resolutions -- not because I have a long list, but because New Year's is a teachable moment. Everyone is looking themselves in the mirror in a rare, private moment of honest reflection. I was being purposely provocative instructing you to have more sex in 2010, but the act of making a resolution isn't flippant or funny -- it's actually sacred. Unlike any other time of year, I can have a heart-to-heart with my family, my friends, my patients, my audience and most importantly myself (I am right there with you!) and decide what needs to be changed for the better. Like all of you, I make a list. And like all of you, each year I fail at a considerable portion of that list. But over time I have seen the success column grow longer than the failure column. You can too.
I believe resolutions are so important that I devoted my show for the entire first week of January to creatively incite a revolution in your resolutions. The first salvo is that changing your life doesn't have to be a painful effort leaving us demoralized and depressed. Food, sex and sleep, three critical components of a healthy life, are a solid starting point for any resolution list.
The most common intention that we wake up with on January first is to lose weight. That's appropriate since a whopping 60 percent of us need to! What if I told you the best way to lose weight is to make sure you never let yourself feel hungry? Sound counterintuitive? It is. But you have a hormone named Ghrelin made in our intestines and stomach that lets you know when it's time to eat. It's the nasty hormone that makes your stomach growl and overwhelms your willpower. If Grhelin starts growling, you are going to overeat and likely eat the wrong foods. You have to always keep your Grhelin levels in check by lightly snacking on nuts, apples or other sensible foods. Keep the lion in its cage by feeling full and you will lose weight because you don't have an uncontrolled urge to overeat.
On our January fourth episode we'll show you exactly how to lose weight, but we will also caution you that your waist size is the better indicator of your health. If you aren't sure whether you need to lose waist, here is an equation you can use: your waist must be half your height or roughly between 32.5 and 37 inches for a woman and between 35 and 40 inches for a man. For years I bet you have focused on the scale. Now, focus on the waist size - it's all in how you see it.
Now, instead of seeing your New Year's resolution as a diet, what if we broke it down into specific steps and played with the language a little bit? For instance: "My New Year's Resolution is to never have anything in the house with these five items listed as the first five ingredients on the label: simple sugars, syrups, enriched flours, saturated fats, or trans fats. If you make your resolution about dumping out the bad food and bringing in the great substitutions that we show you on January fourth, you'll feel you have a bit more control of the situation and you'll forget the D word (Diet! Ahem.) See it differently and it will feel different. For a list of tips, recipes and a 14-day-plan visit
Still want to hear about that resolution to have more sex? Let's save the best for last and talk about sleep first. I want you to go into your bathroom at home, shut the door and have a conversation with yourself in the mirror. Take a good look at that person staring back at you and tell her that she is worth nurturing with seven hours of sleep per night. I am adamant about this. Sleep is one of the most important and most overlooked health drivers. You simply must give your brain time to re-organize its files and your tissues time to repair themselves. I do understand the pressures of parenting and working - I have four children and I have worked many long hours in the hospital over the years. I empathize with the stress life brings -- and I feel infinitely more prepared to handle it when I am well rested. I have more energy. I think more clearly, my mood is better and my appetite stays in check. The benefits of sleep are too numerous to list and it comes down to a question you've heard me ask before: Are you willing to admit that your life is so far out of your control that you can't get enough sleep each night? If, after proper planning, you aren't able to fall asleep it could signify a serious illness that mandates a consult with your doctor. I want you to stop seeing sleep as a luxury where you can cut corners. It's all in how you see it -- so see it differently and put it on your resolution list!
Now for the other resolution that involves your bedroom: sex. Stop seeing sex as something that is only for younger people or budding romances or those with enough time. I really need you to see this one differently because it's a hugely important part of being healthy. I want you to make a New Year's resolution that you will have sex several times a week with your partner. Believe it or not, that's actually a lot of work for many people out there. It's a lot of work because right now we are in the middle of a sexual famine in America. We simply aren't having enough. Why is this an issue? Because a loving, healthy sexual relationship is an indicator that things are great all over, and a lack of one means the opposite. Sex is an indicator of many things, and if you aren't having it at least once (and ideally more) a week for 30 minutes, it could mean something is dangerously wrong. Physical issues that get in the way of a healthy sex life are depression, heart disease, diabetes, and obesity to name a few. All of these can pose grave threats to your overall health. If none of these factors apply to you but you and your mate still aren't wearing out the lock on the bedroom door then it's time to examine your relationship. Sex is an expression of intimacy and is often a valuable indicator of the health of your relationship. Looking at the reasons you are struck by a sexual famine can be painful, but they will be well worth it, and may just save your life or relationship. So make a resolution to have more sex, and embrace all the obstacles along the way - the outcome will be blissful.
So join me in the resolution revolution - I bet you didn't think that food, sleep and sex could make up such a great resolution list. It's up to you in what order you want to start, and it probably depends what time of day you read this. Tune in the week of January 4 and we can go over each one in more detail. Happy New Year. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a resolution to keep, and I am not saying which one....

article link here. 

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

'Too Big to Fail Not Lending'

Mr JumboMortgage can give the readership hundreds of examples of great money good credit borrowers(doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc) that were not approved(or no program avail) by the 'Too Big to Fail' banks that we had/have accounts with that ended up getting a solid loan with a credit union or insurance company. If you or someone you know needs a jumbo loan or wants to lock in a great fixed jumbo mortgage rate we are backed by a credit union where money is lent the old fashioned way. Spread the word on project that is pushing because of a dinner that Arianna and her friends had on Dec 28th after being so feed up with the meltdown and casino capitalism.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Biggest Bond Fund Manager Sees Higher Rates in 2010

US_Credit_Kiesel_Picking_Winners_January -

Round About Related Piece

I often want to ask older family members and esteemed members of my local 'society', "What the hell happened to the place?" What I mean is the American Empire. Read Niall Ferguson if you think otherwise. I am of an age that I am embarking on the timeless process of starting a family. My dear mom gave me the best Christmas present ever (ok, the bigwheel was cool...but it broke)

by giving via CD from Costco pictures from the family archive section of the late 70's and early 80's formally in 35mm slide format. Dad meant well but he could have never known slides degrade. ...

Anyhow, I digress, the pictures stirred up a lot of feelings and thoughts about living in this age vs my parent's glory days. Dad/Mom lived and made a family in a simpler time in my opinion. It really seems that things have fallen apart in this nation. What would Dad say? I am sure he would be pissed on a variety of topics.

The picture below is from the 30's but my Aunt(2nd mom) could take a similar picture today as she volunteers at a food bank in San Diego

Things are horrible for a lot of people. Healthcare for all US Citizens is in the bag but tens of millions don't have food tonight. 4m homes foreclosed this year. Another 4-5m expected 2010. We owe 13 Trillion via the US Treasury. Up 5T in 3 years. 10%+ unemployment..... on and on. Somebody wise/powerful warned us. Our 34th president gave an excellent farewell address warning us of some of the troubles we are in today

Too much and too little to say after this video. But I leave you with a happy picture

God bless you and all of humanity. Do something good today.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Now for Something Completely Different

The Angel of Christmas Present Wishes You & Your Family a Merry Christmas! May Santa bring you joy and fond memories.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Fix it & Forget It!

Grandma's miracle product for her dentures should lend their slogan to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Today's announcement from the Mortgage Bankers Association that 90%+ percent of loan applicants are applying for fixed mortgage rates on refinances and purchases has renewed my faith that people get it! These rates are unreal and can't last. NOTE:CLICK CHARTS FOR FULL SCREEN.

Boring Mortgage Banker Talk Below:
Wed, 2009-12-23 10:39 — NationalMortgag...
New Home Sale Pic
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Dec. 18, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 10.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.9 percent compared with the previous week.
 The Refinance Index decreased 10.1 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 32.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.2 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.6 percent for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.9 percent of total applications from 75.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent of total applications the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained flat at 4.92 percent, with points increasing to 1.23 from 1.08 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.34 percent from 4.33 percent, with points increasing to 1.03 from 0.91 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs remained flat at 6.52 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
For more information, visit

Jumbo Default Rate: 2x Conforming Loan Levels

Homeowners with jumbo mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.

“The rich aren’t as rich as they used to be,” said Alex Rodriguez, a Miami real estate agent with JM Group USA Inc., whose listings include a $2.9 million property marketed as a short sale because the price is less than the mortgage, leaving the bank with a loss. “People have reached the point where they can’t afford the carrying expenses of a $2 million home.”

Payments on about 12% of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more overdue in September, compared with 6.3% on loans less than $250,000 and 7.4% on all U.S. mortgages, according to data from First American CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based research firm. The rate for mortgages above $1 million was 4.7% a year earlier. This continues to pressure luxury home prices throughout the country but especially so within the 1-2 million dollar segment of the market of the "working rich".

As defaults on the biggest jumbo loans rise, borrowers such as Steve Holzknecht, 53, are turning to short sales to exit loans that now are larger than the market value of the house. Last month he cut the asking price for his 7,280-square-foot home in Washington, by $550,000 to $1.25 million, lower than the balances of his two mortgages.  Holzknecht, the former owner of Four Suns Inc., a Seattle luxury homebuilder that went out of business two months ago, constructed the Craftsman-style home in 2000. He declined to identify his lenders or the amount he owes.

With the fire sale of assets causing luxury real estate markets to implode and very probable future increases in the rates of LIBOR based ARM loans; doing nothing and going about your life is not an option. Get your financial house in order as this ride will last many more years.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Jumbo Mortgage Default Rate Is Catching Fire

The information below is consistent with the large bank risk profile for jumbo mortgage lending in most states. As an example the standard down payment has moved to 30% from 20-25% just this summer in a lot of markets. This also is related to the Strategic Default problem. Most jumbo mortgage holders are on-time and won't default but the economics of the business change when defaults move from historic 1% levels to3-5%.

Moody's Investors Service has revised its loss projections for US prime jumbo residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) issued between 2005 and 2008. On average, Moody's is now projecting cumulative losses of 3.8% for 2005 securitizations, 8.0% for 2006 securitizations, 10.9% for 2007 securitizations and 12.3% for 2008 securitizations, reported as a percentage of original balance. As a result of the revision, Moody's has now placed 4474 tranches of jumbo RMBS with an original balance of $234 billion and current outstanding balance of $143 billion, on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's is also aggressively hiking delinquent loan estimates in the near term.
To estimate losses, Moody's first projected delinquencies through the second half of 2010. Moody's estimated that the proportion of contractually current or 30-day delinquent loans today that will become seriously delinquent by the second half of 2010 will be 3.7%, 7.0%, 8.4%, and 9.4% for the 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 vintages, respectively.
So much for no taxpayer losses on GSE exposure.
Full Moody's text:

New York, December 17, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has revised its loss projections for US prime jumbo residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) issued between 2005 and 2008. On average, Moody's is now projecting cumulative losses of 3.8% for 2005 securitizations, 8.0% for 2006 securitizations, 10.9% for 2007 securitizations and 12.3% for 2008 securitizations, reported as a percentage of original balance. As a result of the revision, Moody's has now placed 4474 tranches of jumbo RMBS with an original balance of $234 billion and current outstanding balance of $143 billion, on review for possible downgrade.

Moody's has already taken widespread rating actions on deals backed by jumbo collateral from the 2005-2008 vintages from March through July of this year. The updated loss projections will have the greatest impact on senior securities issued in 2005.

On October 29th, Moody's announced that it would update certain assumptions underlying loss projections for each of the major RMBS sectors. The rapidly deteriorating performance of jumbo pools in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions that remain under duress prompted today's announcement. Over the past nine months serious delinquencies (loans 60 or more days delinquent, including loans in foreclosure and homes that are held for sale) on jumbo mortgage pools backing 2005 to 2008 securitizations have increased markedly. Since March, serious delinquencies for the 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 vintages have increased to 3.2% from 2.1%, 6.0% from 3.8%, 7.6% from 4.8% and 7.8% from 4.6% respectively (reported as a percentage of original pool balance).

Even though the Case-Shiller index in recent months has reported very modest home price gains, Moody's believes the overhang of impending foreclosures will impact home prices negatively in the coming months. Moody's (MEDC) expects home prices to decline an additional 9% to reach a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 37%. Adding to borrowers' financial pressure, unemployment is now projected to peak at around 10.6% from previous projections of 9.8% from the first quarter of this year. Both measures are expected to reach their peaks sometime in the second half of 2010, after which recovery is expected to be slow.
from Moody's and Zerohedge.

Friday, December 18, 2009

CITI Given IRS Tax Break: Really Helping Ourselves?

How the IRS sort-of-saved Citi

Who says the IRS isn’t, umm, understanding?
The US tax authority exempted the Citigroup, and some other bailed-out companies, from rules which would otherwise have led to the troubled bank losing $38bn worth of tax credits.
Citi had planned to repay the US government’s Tarp stake, and under IRS regulation, companies that encounter a change in ownership lose these tax credits. The rule is designed, according to the IRS, to prevent profitable companies from buying loss-making ones to evade taxes.
The rule-change has nevertheless raised eyebrows. From the Washington Post on Wednesday:
The federal government quietly agreed to forgo billions of dollars in potential tax payments from Citigroup as part of the deal announced this week to wean the company from the massive taxpayer bailout that helped it survive the financial crisis.
The Internal Revenue Service on Friday issued an exception to long-standing tax rules for the benefit of Citigroup and a few other companies partially owned by the government. As a result, Citigroup will be allowed to retain billions of dollars worth of tax breaks that otherwise would decline in value when the government sells its stake to private investors.
from the FT.

Did the government(us) give CITI a tax break to ultimately help the balance sheet? Possibly as a way to deal with upcoming losses and/or maybe provide new lending? In owning a huge piece of this bank aren't we really helping ourselves using creative accounting...

What do you think? Please discuss below.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

FED Chairman Refied into a 30Y Fixed in 09. Maybe his best move yet.

From the interview:

TIME: Do you have a mortgage?

Bernanke: Oh, yes, we refinanced.

TIME: Oh, perfect. When?

Bernanke: About 5%. A couple of months ago.

TIME: Good time.

Bernanke: Yes. We had to do it because we had an adjustable rate mortgage and it exploded, so we had to.

TIME: So, did you get a fixed rate at 5%? I think this might be the most valuable piece of information. (Laughter.)

Bernanke: Thirty years fixed rate at a little over 5%.

So Bernanke refinanced into a loan with a higher interest rate and with a larger mortgage payment for the security of a fixed rate. This suggests he thinks fixed mortgage rates have bottomed (otherwise he could have paid less on his mortgage, at a 3.75% interest rate, and then refinanced next year). He did not "have to do it".

At least he was smart enough to know that mortgage rates aren't going to be lower in the proverbial "future." Now about the handling of the dollar and the unemployment rate.. another post entirely.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Tiger Woods Poem -Anon

Tiger, Tiger bonking bright
in the fleshpots of the night
what immortal eye or hand
could restore your tarnished brand?

On what porn star’s breasts and thighs,
burnt the fire of your eyes
on what course did your ball run
as you sunk a hole in one?

You always looked so squeaky clean
as you strode across  the green
what  a relief  for other  men
to know deep down you’re just like  them

All the endorsements down the drain
in what place was kept  your  brain
how deep the bunker, how long the grass
how costly all the tits and ass

Why did you keep your clubs so handy
why did you marry a fearsome scandie
at golf you’ll always be a winner
at cheating you’re a rank beginner

Tiger, Tiger bonking bright
in the fleshpots of the night
what immortal eye or hand
could restore your tarnished brand?

Author Unknown

Monday, December 14, 2009

Rock Bottom Conforming and the Lowest Jumbo Loan Rates In History

click to enlarge

From the NYT:
“Mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since the 1940s, thanks to a trillion-dollar intervention by the federal government. Yet the banks that once handed out home loans freely are imposing such stringent requirements that many homeowners who might want to refinance are effectively locked out.
The scarcity of credit not only hurts homeowners but also has broad economic repercussions at a time when consumer spending and employment are showing modest signs of improvement, hinting at a recovery after two years of recession.”
Sure, jumbo mortgage refinancing could save home-owners lotsof money they could then plow back into the economy — or even avoid foreclosure. But not if bank lending standards are too tight.

That is the problem with an abdication of lending standards — as we saw from 2002 – to 2007. After the collapse, the over-reaction sends the pendulum swinging too far the other way. Lending standards become too tight.
If only we monkeys could learn anything from history . . .

Sunday, December 6, 2009

The Solution to the Economic Recession

Cartoons by Rick McKee
Augusta Chronicle, Dec. 2, 2009