Thursday, December 31, 2009

Happy New Year! It's a BLUE MOON....

Happy New Year. 
May You Have a Prosperous 2010. It's twenty ten.  

BTW, look at the Blue Moon Tonight. They only occur once every 19 years.

Below is from Dr. Oz via

Mehmet Oz, M.D.

Vice-Chair and Professor of Surgery at Columbia University, author, radio and TV show host

 Here are my suggested resolutions for 2010: Have more sex, get more sleep, and never let yourself feel hungry. Sound hedonistic? These three resolutions will save and lengthen your life, and they are very realistic and noble goals. New Year's resolutions were never so much fun -- it's all in how you see it. Let's think about it for a minute, shall we?

Like millions of others, you are waking up on New Year's Day with the best of intentions. It's a new year and time for a clean slate. Resolutions come in all shapes and sizes and they are as varied as the people who make them. I get very excited about New Year's resolutions -- not because I have a long list, but because New Year's is a teachable moment. Everyone is looking themselves in the mirror in a rare, private moment of honest reflection. I was being purposely provocative instructing you to have more sex in 2010, but the act of making a resolution isn't flippant or funny -- it's actually sacred. Unlike any other time of year, I can have a heart-to-heart with my family, my friends, my patients, my audience and most importantly myself (I am right there with you!) and decide what needs to be changed for the better. Like all of you, I make a list. And like all of you, each year I fail at a considerable portion of that list. But over time I have seen the success column grow longer than the failure column. You can too.
I believe resolutions are so important that I devoted my show for the entire first week of January to creatively incite a revolution in your resolutions. The first salvo is that changing your life doesn't have to be a painful effort leaving us demoralized and depressed. Food, sex and sleep, three critical components of a healthy life, are a solid starting point for any resolution list.
The most common intention that we wake up with on January first is to lose weight. That's appropriate since a whopping 60 percent of us need to! What if I told you the best way to lose weight is to make sure you never let yourself feel hungry? Sound counterintuitive? It is. But you have a hormone named Ghrelin made in our intestines and stomach that lets you know when it's time to eat. It's the nasty hormone that makes your stomach growl and overwhelms your willpower. If Grhelin starts growling, you are going to overeat and likely eat the wrong foods. You have to always keep your Grhelin levels in check by lightly snacking on nuts, apples or other sensible foods. Keep the lion in its cage by feeling full and you will lose weight because you don't have an uncontrolled urge to overeat.
On our January fourth episode we'll show you exactly how to lose weight, but we will also caution you that your waist size is the better indicator of your health. If you aren't sure whether you need to lose waist, here is an equation you can use: your waist must be half your height or roughly between 32.5 and 37 inches for a woman and between 35 and 40 inches for a man. For years I bet you have focused on the scale. Now, focus on the waist size - it's all in how you see it.
Now, instead of seeing your New Year's resolution as a diet, what if we broke it down into specific steps and played with the language a little bit? For instance: "My New Year's Resolution is to never have anything in the house with these five items listed as the first five ingredients on the label: simple sugars, syrups, enriched flours, saturated fats, or trans fats. If you make your resolution about dumping out the bad food and bringing in the great substitutions that we show you on January fourth, you'll feel you have a bit more control of the situation and you'll forget the D word (Diet! Ahem.) See it differently and it will feel different. For a list of tips, recipes and a 14-day-plan visit
Still want to hear about that resolution to have more sex? Let's save the best for last and talk about sleep first. I want you to go into your bathroom at home, shut the door and have a conversation with yourself in the mirror. Take a good look at that person staring back at you and tell her that she is worth nurturing with seven hours of sleep per night. I am adamant about this. Sleep is one of the most important and most overlooked health drivers. You simply must give your brain time to re-organize its files and your tissues time to repair themselves. I do understand the pressures of parenting and working - I have four children and I have worked many long hours in the hospital over the years. I empathize with the stress life brings -- and I feel infinitely more prepared to handle it when I am well rested. I have more energy. I think more clearly, my mood is better and my appetite stays in check. The benefits of sleep are too numerous to list and it comes down to a question you've heard me ask before: Are you willing to admit that your life is so far out of your control that you can't get enough sleep each night? If, after proper planning, you aren't able to fall asleep it could signify a serious illness that mandates a consult with your doctor. I want you to stop seeing sleep as a luxury where you can cut corners. It's all in how you see it -- so see it differently and put it on your resolution list!
Now for the other resolution that involves your bedroom: sex. Stop seeing sex as something that is only for younger people or budding romances or those with enough time. I really need you to see this one differently because it's a hugely important part of being healthy. I want you to make a New Year's resolution that you will have sex several times a week with your partner. Believe it or not, that's actually a lot of work for many people out there. It's a lot of work because right now we are in the middle of a sexual famine in America. We simply aren't having enough. Why is this an issue? Because a loving, healthy sexual relationship is an indicator that things are great all over, and a lack of one means the opposite. Sex is an indicator of many things, and if you aren't having it at least once (and ideally more) a week for 30 minutes, it could mean something is dangerously wrong. Physical issues that get in the way of a healthy sex life are depression, heart disease, diabetes, and obesity to name a few. All of these can pose grave threats to your overall health. If none of these factors apply to you but you and your mate still aren't wearing out the lock on the bedroom door then it's time to examine your relationship. Sex is an expression of intimacy and is often a valuable indicator of the health of your relationship. Looking at the reasons you are struck by a sexual famine can be painful, but they will be well worth it, and may just save your life or relationship. So make a resolution to have more sex, and embrace all the obstacles along the way - the outcome will be blissful.
So join me in the resolution revolution - I bet you didn't think that food, sleep and sex could make up such a great resolution list. It's up to you in what order you want to start, and it probably depends what time of day you read this. Tune in the week of January 4 and we can go over each one in more detail. Happy New Year. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a resolution to keep, and I am not saying which one....

article link here. 

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

'Too Big to Fail Not Lending'

Mr JumboMortgage can give the readership hundreds of examples of great money good credit borrowers(doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc) that were not approved(or no program avail) by the 'Too Big to Fail' banks that we had/have accounts with that ended up getting a solid loan with a credit union or insurance company. If you or someone you know needs a jumbo loan or wants to lock in a great fixed jumbo mortgage rate we are backed by a credit union where money is lent the old fashioned way. Spread the word on project that is pushing because of a dinner that Arianna and her friends had on Dec 28th after being so feed up with the meltdown and casino capitalism.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Biggest Bond Fund Manager Sees Higher Rates in 2010

US_Credit_Kiesel_Picking_Winners_January -

Round About Related Piece

I often want to ask older family members and esteemed members of my local 'society', "What the hell happened to the place?" What I mean is the American Empire. Read Niall Ferguson if you think otherwise. I am of an age that I am embarking on the timeless process of starting a family. My dear mom gave me the best Christmas present ever (ok, the bigwheel was cool...but it broke)

by giving via CD from Costco pictures from the family archive section of the late 70's and early 80's formally in 35mm slide format. Dad meant well but he could have never known slides degrade. ...

Anyhow, I digress, the pictures stirred up a lot of feelings and thoughts about living in this age vs my parent's glory days. Dad/Mom lived and made a family in a simpler time in my opinion. It really seems that things have fallen apart in this nation. What would Dad say? I am sure he would be pissed on a variety of topics.

The picture below is from the 30's but my Aunt(2nd mom) could take a similar picture today as she volunteers at a food bank in San Diego

Things are horrible for a lot of people. Healthcare for all US Citizens is in the bag but tens of millions don't have food tonight. 4m homes foreclosed this year. Another 4-5m expected 2010. We owe 13 Trillion via the US Treasury. Up 5T in 3 years. 10%+ unemployment..... on and on. Somebody wise/powerful warned us. Our 34th president gave an excellent farewell address warning us of some of the troubles we are in today

Too much and too little to say after this video. But I leave you with a happy picture

God bless you and all of humanity. Do something good today.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Now for Something Completely Different

The Angel of Christmas Present Wishes You & Your Family a Merry Christmas! May Santa bring you joy and fond memories.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Fix it & Forget It!

Grandma's miracle product for her dentures should lend their slogan to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Today's announcement from the Mortgage Bankers Association that 90%+ percent of loan applicants are applying for fixed mortgage rates on refinances and purchases has renewed my faith that people get it! These rates are unreal and can't last. NOTE:CLICK CHARTS FOR FULL SCREEN.

Boring Mortgage Banker Talk Below:
Wed, 2009-12-23 10:39 — NationalMortgag...
New Home Sale Pic
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Dec. 18, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 10.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10.9 percent compared with the previous week.
 The Refinance Index decreased 10.1 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 32.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.2 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.6 percent for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.9 percent of total applications from 75.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent of total applications the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained flat at 4.92 percent, with points increasing to 1.23 from 1.08 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.34 percent from 4.33 percent, with points increasing to 1.03 from 0.91 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs remained flat at 6.52 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
For more information, visit

Jumbo Default Rate: 2x Conforming Loan Levels

Homeowners with jumbo mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.

“The rich aren’t as rich as they used to be,” said Alex Rodriguez, a Miami real estate agent with JM Group USA Inc., whose listings include a $2.9 million property marketed as a short sale because the price is less than the mortgage, leaving the bank with a loss. “People have reached the point where they can’t afford the carrying expenses of a $2 million home.”

Payments on about 12% of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more overdue in September, compared with 6.3% on loans less than $250,000 and 7.4% on all U.S. mortgages, according to data from First American CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based research firm. The rate for mortgages above $1 million was 4.7% a year earlier. This continues to pressure luxury home prices throughout the country but especially so within the 1-2 million dollar segment of the market of the "working rich".

As defaults on the biggest jumbo loans rise, borrowers such as Steve Holzknecht, 53, are turning to short sales to exit loans that now are larger than the market value of the house. Last month he cut the asking price for his 7,280-square-foot home in Washington, by $550,000 to $1.25 million, lower than the balances of his two mortgages.  Holzknecht, the former owner of Four Suns Inc., a Seattle luxury homebuilder that went out of business two months ago, constructed the Craftsman-style home in 2000. He declined to identify his lenders or the amount he owes.

With the fire sale of assets causing luxury real estate markets to implode and very probable future increases in the rates of LIBOR based ARM loans; doing nothing and going about your life is not an option. Get your financial house in order as this ride will last many more years.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Jumbo Mortgage Default Rate Is Catching Fire

The information below is consistent with the large bank risk profile for jumbo mortgage lending in most states. As an example the standard down payment has moved to 30% from 20-25% just this summer in a lot of markets. This also is related to the Strategic Default problem. Most jumbo mortgage holders are on-time and won't default but the economics of the business change when defaults move from historic 1% levels to3-5%.

Moody's Investors Service has revised its loss projections for US prime jumbo residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) issued between 2005 and 2008. On average, Moody's is now projecting cumulative losses of 3.8% for 2005 securitizations, 8.0% for 2006 securitizations, 10.9% for 2007 securitizations and 12.3% for 2008 securitizations, reported as a percentage of original balance. As a result of the revision, Moody's has now placed 4474 tranches of jumbo RMBS with an original balance of $234 billion and current outstanding balance of $143 billion, on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's is also aggressively hiking delinquent loan estimates in the near term.
To estimate losses, Moody's first projected delinquencies through the second half of 2010. Moody's estimated that the proportion of contractually current or 30-day delinquent loans today that will become seriously delinquent by the second half of 2010 will be 3.7%, 7.0%, 8.4%, and 9.4% for the 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 vintages, respectively.
So much for no taxpayer losses on GSE exposure.
Full Moody's text:

New York, December 17, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has revised its loss projections for US prime jumbo residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) issued between 2005 and 2008. On average, Moody's is now projecting cumulative losses of 3.8% for 2005 securitizations, 8.0% for 2006 securitizations, 10.9% for 2007 securitizations and 12.3% for 2008 securitizations, reported as a percentage of original balance. As a result of the revision, Moody's has now placed 4474 tranches of jumbo RMBS with an original balance of $234 billion and current outstanding balance of $143 billion, on review for possible downgrade.

Moody's has already taken widespread rating actions on deals backed by jumbo collateral from the 2005-2008 vintages from March through July of this year. The updated loss projections will have the greatest impact on senior securities issued in 2005.

On October 29th, Moody's announced that it would update certain assumptions underlying loss projections for each of the major RMBS sectors. The rapidly deteriorating performance of jumbo pools in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions that remain under duress prompted today's announcement. Over the past nine months serious delinquencies (loans 60 or more days delinquent, including loans in foreclosure and homes that are held for sale) on jumbo mortgage pools backing 2005 to 2008 securitizations have increased markedly. Since March, serious delinquencies for the 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 vintages have increased to 3.2% from 2.1%, 6.0% from 3.8%, 7.6% from 4.8% and 7.8% from 4.6% respectively (reported as a percentage of original pool balance).

Even though the Case-Shiller index in recent months has reported very modest home price gains, Moody's believes the overhang of impending foreclosures will impact home prices negatively in the coming months. Moody's (MEDC) expects home prices to decline an additional 9% to reach a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 37%. Adding to borrowers' financial pressure, unemployment is now projected to peak at around 10.6% from previous projections of 9.8% from the first quarter of this year. Both measures are expected to reach their peaks sometime in the second half of 2010, after which recovery is expected to be slow.
from Moody's and Zerohedge.

Friday, December 18, 2009

CITI Given IRS Tax Break: Really Helping Ourselves?

How the IRS sort-of-saved Citi

Who says the IRS isn’t, umm, understanding?
The US tax authority exempted the Citigroup, and some other bailed-out companies, from rules which would otherwise have led to the troubled bank losing $38bn worth of tax credits.
Citi had planned to repay the US government’s Tarp stake, and under IRS regulation, companies that encounter a change in ownership lose these tax credits. The rule is designed, according to the IRS, to prevent profitable companies from buying loss-making ones to evade taxes.
The rule-change has nevertheless raised eyebrows. From the Washington Post on Wednesday:
The federal government quietly agreed to forgo billions of dollars in potential tax payments from Citigroup as part of the deal announced this week to wean the company from the massive taxpayer bailout that helped it survive the financial crisis.
The Internal Revenue Service on Friday issued an exception to long-standing tax rules for the benefit of Citigroup and a few other companies partially owned by the government. As a result, Citigroup will be allowed to retain billions of dollars worth of tax breaks that otherwise would decline in value when the government sells its stake to private investors.
from the FT.

Did the government(us) give CITI a tax break to ultimately help the balance sheet? Possibly as a way to deal with upcoming losses and/or maybe provide new lending? In owning a huge piece of this bank aren't we really helping ourselves using creative accounting...

What do you think? Please discuss below.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

FED Chairman Refied into a 30Y Fixed in 09. Maybe his best move yet.

From the interview:

TIME: Do you have a mortgage?

Bernanke: Oh, yes, we refinanced.

TIME: Oh, perfect. When?

Bernanke: About 5%. A couple of months ago.

TIME: Good time.

Bernanke: Yes. We had to do it because we had an adjustable rate mortgage and it exploded, so we had to.

TIME: So, did you get a fixed rate at 5%? I think this might be the most valuable piece of information. (Laughter.)

Bernanke: Thirty years fixed rate at a little over 5%.

So Bernanke refinanced into a loan with a higher interest rate and with a larger mortgage payment for the security of a fixed rate. This suggests he thinks fixed mortgage rates have bottomed (otherwise he could have paid less on his mortgage, at a 3.75% interest rate, and then refinanced next year). He did not "have to do it".

At least he was smart enough to know that mortgage rates aren't going to be lower in the proverbial "future." Now about the handling of the dollar and the unemployment rate.. another post entirely.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Tiger Woods Poem -Anon

Tiger, Tiger bonking bright
in the fleshpots of the night
what immortal eye or hand
could restore your tarnished brand?

On what porn star’s breasts and thighs,
burnt the fire of your eyes
on what course did your ball run
as you sunk a hole in one?

You always looked so squeaky clean
as you strode across  the green
what  a relief  for other  men
to know deep down you’re just like  them

All the endorsements down the drain
in what place was kept  your  brain
how deep the bunker, how long the grass
how costly all the tits and ass

Why did you keep your clubs so handy
why did you marry a fearsome scandie
at golf you’ll always be a winner
at cheating you’re a rank beginner

Tiger, Tiger bonking bright
in the fleshpots of the night
what immortal eye or hand
could restore your tarnished brand?

Author Unknown

Monday, December 14, 2009

Rock Bottom Conforming and the Lowest Jumbo Loan Rates In History

click to enlarge

From the NYT:
“Mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since the 1940s, thanks to a trillion-dollar intervention by the federal government. Yet the banks that once handed out home loans freely are imposing such stringent requirements that many homeowners who might want to refinance are effectively locked out.
The scarcity of credit not only hurts homeowners but also has broad economic repercussions at a time when consumer spending and employment are showing modest signs of improvement, hinting at a recovery after two years of recession.”
Sure, jumbo mortgage refinancing could save home-owners lotsof money they could then plow back into the economy — or even avoid foreclosure. But not if bank lending standards are too tight.

That is the problem with an abdication of lending standards — as we saw from 2002 – to 2007. After the collapse, the over-reaction sends the pendulum swinging too far the other way. Lending standards become too tight.
If only we monkeys could learn anything from history . . .

Sunday, December 6, 2009

The Solution to the Economic Recession

Cartoons by Rick McKee
Augusta Chronicle, Dec. 2, 2009

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

MBA Report: Purchase Index at 12Y Low!

Rates can go to 3% but if someone isn't working, working part-time, or concerned about their career in this environment they aren't making an offer on a new home. I think the home buyer tax credit that expired and was renewed recently pulled demand forward resulting in a lack of buyers now. Realtors tell us that well priced listings are slowly selling but action has really slowed down in the last month. Is this simply the winter seasonal slowdown or is this another leg down for the economy at large? My guess is a double-dip recession after a disappointing holiday season. Expect another large jobs bill from congress before year end.

MBA: Report Purchase Index at 12Y Low!

From the Mortgage Bankers Association...

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 1.2 percent.

The Refinance Index decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week. The four week moving average is up 1.4 percent for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 72.9 percent of total applications from 71.5 percent the previous week. This refinance share is the highest share since the week ending May 15, 2009.

The Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier. The four week moving average is down 5.8 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.83 percent from 4.90 percent, with points increasing to 1.17 from 1.03 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest contract rate observed by the survey since mid-May of this year.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.32 percent from 4.33 percent, with points decreasing to 1.01 from 1.15 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.82 percent from 6.85 percent, with points decreasing to 0.28 from 0.29 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Who's Paying the Tab?

Government Bailouts of hundreds of banks, GM, Medicare, Wars in Iraq and Afganistan. But who actually is paying for it? Aside from putting it on the big goverment charge card we have with the US Treasury, someone has to pay the tab every year. Nice infoporn from below. Click to enlarge.

Home Buyer Tax Credit: Extension Info

Friday, November 13, 2009

Golden State: Sell Hollywood to Balance Budget?

That's your local politician trying to figure out a way to balance the state budget. California in particular has a 17 Billion dollar budget shortfall. With constitutionally required items to be paid and a populance unwilling to demand cuts or pay more taxes something has to give. Here's some of the current thinking":
"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status."

Very troubling indeed. I expect to see dramatic cuts in services and a variety of tax increases of the stealth variety. Small increases on a varity of items such as gas, cigarettes, etc.
To see a piece concerning this in the WSJ click here.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Personal BK's Up 28% Over Last Year

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: October Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Reach New Highs, Up 28 Percent Over Last Year

The 135,913 consumer bankruptcy filings in October represented a 27.9 percent increase over last October's monthly total of 106,266, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), relying on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center (NBKRC). The October 2009 consumer filings represented an 8.9 percent increase from the September 2009 total of 124,790. Chapter 13 filings constituted 28.5 percent of all consumer cases in October, a slight increase from the September rate.

"The nearly 9 percent increase in consumer bankruptcy filings in October, together with a 7 percent jump reported in business cases, demonstrates the sustained stress on the U.S. economy,"said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. ABI forecasts that total bankruptcies this year will exceed 1.4 million, the highest number since 2005.

2005 had a huge spike because a federal BK reform law was put into place requiring a means tests and classes be taken. They wanted to weed out the BK filer who was abusing the system.

I also read this troubling piece put together by CNN highlighting people that are forced to save money because of job losses and illness; resorting to fishing for dinner and hunting deer. This is on their personal financial site CNN-FN/Money. Things are very very bad. Extreme Saver Article Here.

Loan mortgage calculator – Why do you need it?

This is a Sponsored Post

A loan mortgage calculator is an effective tool that can give you the true picture of your financial condition. It helps you to decide the size of the mortgage that you should take out. Using a loan mortgage calculator is essential because if you know how much you can afford, you can also plan out your finances beforehand. It is important to arrange for your finances before you settle for a house. In this regard, you can take assistance of a mortgage broker that can assist you in shopping around for your dream house.

Let us see how a loan mortgage calculator can help you and why you need it in the first place. There are different types of loan mortgage calculators that can help you when you take out a mortgage. The loan mortgage calculators that are used extensively include the following –

• Rent or Buy
You may be wondering whether renting is a better option than buying. If you want to figure out how your finances will turn out to be if you rent or buy, take help of a loan mortgage calculator. You will be able to find out which is a better option.

• How much do you pay if you opt for 15-year or 30-year loan term?
In case you are opting for 15-year loan term, you will have to pay more each month but the rate of interest will be low. On the other hand, if you opt for 30-year loan term, you will have to pay less but the rate of interest will be high. With the help of a loan mortgage calculator, you can find out the amount you have to pay each month.

• ARM versus FRM
A loan mortgage calculator will help you to find out how much you have to pay if you opt for adjustable-rate mortgage and fixed-rate mortgage. In case of FRM, the amount you have to pay throughout the term of the loan is predictable and fixed. But if you opt for ARM, the rates fluctuate as per rates of the market. And your monthly mortgage payments change.

• APR loan mortgage calculator
APR or the Annual Percentage Rate is the total cost of the loan. Although APR doesn’t affect your monthly mortgage payments, with the help of APR loan mortgage calculator, you can calculate the total loan cost.

Since your finances occupy center stage, it is important to work out your finances well in advance. This is because you have to continue making payments consistently for the entire loan term. And falling behind on payments means you may have to face foreclosure.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Oh the Parabolic Troubles.

This chart is very troubling. Things are only accelerating. 4.5% of mortgages in the 4 trillion portfolio are over 90 days late. From Calculated Risk.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Housing, More Pain to Come:Shocker!

I meant to get to this last week, but the day it came out, I was mostly enjoying the sites and vino of Italy. Largely without 3G access(everything is slower in Italy), and I somehow missed it:

“Despite some tentative signs of recovery, the U.S. housing market remains vulnerable to further price drops—especially in areas where large numbers of mortgages are headed toward foreclosure over the next few years.

The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market data in 28 major metro areas shows sharp drops in the number of homes listed for sale across the country. But the potential supply of homes is far larger because banks are likely to acquire significant numbers of foreclosed homes in some areas, notably Las Vegas, Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami and other parts of Florida, and Sacramento, Calif., over the next few years.

Sales of those homes may depress prices further. By contrast, metro areas with relatively low foreclosure and mortgage-delinquency rates include Boston, Denver, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, Raleigh, N.C., and Portland, Ore., making them less vulnerable.

Homeowners and potential buyers have been whipsawed by conflicting signals about the state of the market in recent months. Ulani and Mike Thiessen found the market surprisingly hot when they went shopping for their first home in Las Vegas during the summer. With the help of Kim Kelly-Reed, an agent from One Source Realty & Management, the Thiessens finally bought a foreclosed house in September for about $136,000—but only after being outbid on three other houses.”

chart courtesy of WSJ

Friday, September 4, 2009

Making a Mess a Bit Better Looking?

This is a Wordle of the Blog. I am an optimist and generally a happy person. As I close out a tough week I am looking forward to the day a few years from now when the new Wordle has recovery and stability as the primary keywords. Have an excellent weekend.

Horrible Bank. Smart Dog.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Record Number Late on Mortgage Payments

As the media announces that the recession is over it's hard to ignore the record number of American's stumbling to make their mortgage payment.

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.24 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2009, up 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2009, and up 283 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.30 percent, an increase of 45 basis points from the first quarter of 2009 and 155 basis points from one year ago.
The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 13.16 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.
“While the rate of new foreclosures started was essentially unchanged from last quarter’s record high, there was a major drop in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans. The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types of loans, with
prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase. As a sign that mortgage performance is once again being driven by unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted for one in five....” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.
emphasis added

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Price Solves Inventory Problem:Dalton Sells Out

Maybe it was the tax break or maybe it was just the heady rush of shouting a number higher than the guy next to you, but that auction really worked out for the Dalton this past weekend. All 34 condos on the block sold (one of the units at the site was already in escrow). Debi Roks, a project manager for auction company Kennedy-Wilson, tells us the event was standing room only. She couldn't share specific prices, but everything went for under the latest asking prices (unshockingly), which were between $349,000 for a 684 square feet loft with one bath and $779,000 for a 1,721 square feet two bedroom, two and a half bathroom condo with a rooftop deck. Starting bids ranged from $165,000 to $395,000. For the inside scoop on Pasadena Real Estate and Pasadena Foreclosures visit our friends at

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Foreclosure Wave Continues to Grow

From Matt Padilla at the O.C. Register: Foreclosure wave gathers momentum
“To say there is a second wave implies the (current) wave has receded,” [Sam Khater, senior economist, First American CoreLogic] “I don’t see that the wave has receded.”
Foreclosure Wave Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Matt based on data from American CoreLogic.
Khater said ... federal and state efforts have mostly delayed foreclosures, preventing few. ... So to tune out the noise, just look at the 90-day rate. In Khater’s view it shows “one giant wave.”

90 day delinquency rate: "everything 3 months late or more. Likely includes most all Foreclosures in Process. The categories are not separate."

Foreclosure Rate is actual foreclosures in process: "Everything with NOD and Trustee's Sale filing."

REO Rate: "Everything foreclosed but still held by bank or servicer. This category is separate from other two."

Mr.Mortgage Summary:Expect to see more home inventory come on the market in the next two years. It takes 12-14 months after a payment is missed to actually get listed by a realtor for sale as an REO. With the unemployment rate at 10% give or take that is a lot of new folks entering the foreclosure line. This will pressuree prices in market that were the former bubble states.

reposted from Calculated Risk.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Finding a Loan For Investment Property

Finding the Best Mortgage for an Investment Property

If you are considering buying properties either to hold as investments or to sell then you need to look at mortgages and mortgage rates differently. In order to make the most amount of profit you need to borrow as little as possible. Remember: the most important aspect in the process is retaining the capability to turn the property around to the buyers without causing you payments in the. Thankfully, there are several ways you can mortgage these investment properties to your benefit.

What Can You Afford?

Take a moment to review your current financial status. If you can afford to make the down payment on a property, you may want to go ahead and do so. You will be able to use the equity to both build your profits and the number of subsequent investment properties.

Finding The Best Mortgage

Since you want to spend as little money as possible when buying properties to sell, you will want to acquire a mortgage that requires minimal financial output during the time period in which you are trying to sell the property. This means looking for loans with low initial interest rates or loans that pay off the interest first too. For example, if qualified, you may want to go with a no deposit loan through which you would be lent 100% of the property value provided that you can demonstrate a solid savings history. The initial mortgage payments will be smaller than they would be in a traditional mortgage agreement and you will be able to purchase the property a lot sooner.

Also, a hybrid loan- one in which the interest is fixed for a period of time and then becomes adjustable- is another good option for investment property holders, and works well for those either concerned about the future movement of interest rates or investors that don’t want to take a particular stance.

How to Get the Best Loan for Your Needs

When you find a property that you want to invest in, it is important to discuss financing options with a variety of banks and lending institutions. Be sure to explain your plan for the property as well as what you are prepared to contribute monetarily. Keep in mind that it is best to work with a lender that has a background in working with investment property holders as they will often be better suited to serve your needs.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Conforming and Jumbo Rates Move Higher

Last week was a roller coaster ride for mortgage rate watchers. After a nice rally in the mortgage-backed securities market on Tuesday, the par 30 year fixed mortgage rate moved below 5.00% on Wednesday, however by Friday Treasuries and MBS prices had fallen back to Monday 's levels and mortgage rates consequently moved higher. This has been a consistent pattern lately, each time mortgage rates break the 5.00% barrier, they fail to remain below 5.00%. This implies, if you are considering a refinance and have yet to submit a loan should do so to ensure that you are able to take advantage of the periods of mortgage rates below 5.00% (assuming you qualify).

Reports throughout the industry are indicating that the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage is in the 5.25% to 5.375% range for the best qualified consumers and 30Y fixed jumbo loans are at 6.25%. In order to meet the criteria of best qualified you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including 1 point loan. Looking at the national average in this volatile rate enviroment is like looking at last weeks temperature. To get a quote or a custom proposal contact us anytime.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Why I Drink Wine Daily.

No promo. No plugs. I wish they would compensate me! Here is one of the great reasons to get a glass or two at dinner:

Friday, June 26, 2009

Economic Rebound, Not Yet! Rates to Remain Great.

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose for the first time since February 2009, gaining 3.2 percent in May. May’s increase, which raised the SA index to 102.3, wasn’t large enough to offset the March through April cumulative reduction of 6.7 percent. ...

Compared with May 2008, tonnage contracted 11 percent, which was the best year-over-year result in three months. Despite the improvement from April’s 13.2 percent plunge, May’s decrease is still historically large.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the month-to-month improvement was encouraging, but cautioned that tonnage is unlikely to surge anytime soon. “I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, but I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight transportation is ready to explode,” Costello said. “The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, rising fuel prices, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term.” He also noted that he doesn’t expect tonnage to deteriorate much further and that any growth in tonnage over the next few months is likely to be modest.

Note on the impact of trucking company failures on the index: Each month, ATA asks its membership the amount of tonnage each carrier hauled, including all types of freight. The indexes are calculated based on those responses. The sample includes an array of trucking companies, ranging from small fleets to multi-billion dollar carriers. When a company in the sample fails, we include its final month of operation and zero it out for the following month, with the assumption that the remaining carriers pick up that freight. As a result, it is close to a net wash and does not end up in a false increase. Nevertheless, some carriers are picking up freight from failures, and it may have boosted the index. Due to our correction mentioned above, however, it should be limited.

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 69 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods ...

repost from our favorite blog: Calculated Risk.

Expect to see good conforming and jumbo loan rates for the next six months at least. It will take some time for the inflation rate to budge and force rates higher.