Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Mortgage Bailout Cost Will Hit Everyone


Yesterday, Mrs. Clinton wrote the Secretary of the Treasury about her bailout plan. This whole idea of freezing mortgage rates and foreclosure bailouts is bad medicine with unbelievable side effects. The equivalent to taking a drug to treat your fever but it gives you cancer a year later. We need to let free markets work. Flush out the people who can't afford their homes and took out loans that they could never pay. Otherwise, the housing crisis that is now a credit meltdown will last much longer.


Who would want to lend money to homeowners or other borrowers for that matter knowing that the government stepped in and altered the terms of millions of mortgages during the meltdown? Borrowers with less than perfect credit were given rates and terms much better than they otherwise would have received because the investors/banks were counting on the reset to make up for a teaser rate that didn't compensate for the credit risk of a non-prime borrower or high loan to value mortgage. Without the teaser rates borrowers would likely have had rates of 8-11%. That is what we see now at the remaining lenders that work in the non-prime market. If the bailout proponents win, we will see credit costs increase and credit availability dramatically decline. Someone pays, it will be the tax payer and anyone who borrowers will see increased requirements and higher rates. This has already happened with subprime rates, stated loans, and down payment requirements. I agree things were way out of hand but a bailout will only make the patient much worse off in the long run. Let the fever run its course. Terrible ideas found below:


December 3, 2007
The Honorable Henry M. Paulson, Jr.

Secretary

United States Department of the Treasury

1500 Pennsylvania Avenue,

N.W.Washington, D.C. 20220

Dear Mr. Secretary:
I am encouraged by news accounts that Treasury officials are negotiating an agreement with the mortgage industry to curb the foreclosure crisis. Reports of this agreement indicate that it will allow homeowners to apply to quickly refinance their mortgages or temporarily stop their adjustable rate mortgages from resetting at higher levels.
An effort to end the foreclosure crisis is long overdue. 1.8 million foreclosure notices have been sent out this year, an increase of 74% from last year. And with the monthly payments set to rise on more than 1 million subprime loans next year, the situation is likely to worsen. Experts now say that the foreclosure crisis is weakening the economic outlook, hurting industries from construction to autos, and making banks reluctant to lend companies the capital they need to expand and create jobs. Cities face the prospect of vacant properties marring neighborhoods, cutting tax receipts, and dragging down property values.
It is critical that we address this crisis. The Administration and the mortgage industry must reach an agreement that matches the scale of the problem. If you produce an inadequate agreement, or fail outright, the cost to our economy will be incalculable. A satisfactory agreement must do at least the following: impose a moratorium on foreclosures, freeze mortgage rates before they escalate, and require that the mortgage industry report its progress on loan modifications:
Impose a foreclosure moratorium of at least 90 days on subprime, owner-occupied homes. The moratorium will stop foreclosures until lenders and servicers have an opportunity to implement the freeze in mortgage rates. Servicers have complained that they do not have the systems in place to quickly contact the large numbers of at-risk borrowers. Servicers can certainly expect that during the moratorium at-risk borrowers will contact them. The moratorium will also give state and city organizations as well as community groups the necessary time to provide financial counseling to at-risk homeowners. The moratorium only applies to owner-occupied houses, and therefore excludes real estate speculators.
Freeze the monthly rate on subprime adjustable rate mortgages, with the freeze lasting at least 5 years or until the mortgages have been converted into affordable, fixed-rate loans. After the moratorium, there should be a long freeze in rates on adjustable rate mortgages. The overwhelming majority of subprime mortgages have adjustable rates. The long rate-freeze will give the housing market time to stabilize. It will give families an opportunity to rebuild equity in their homes. It also gives the mortgage industry time, and incentive, to convert mortgages that were designed to fail into loans that are actually affordable. The rate freeze and loan modification must be extended not only to borrowers who are current but to some who have fallen behind. After all, it is indisputable that brokers and mortgage companies lured families into mortgages which were designed to end in foreclosure. This was only possible because regulators were asleep at the switch. A rate freeze is critical. An average of $30 billion in loans will reset monthly next year. One study indicates that the average reset increases monthly payments by 40%. It is no surprise that rate resets are the major driver of the foreclosure crisis. The rate freeze and loan modification would only apply to owner-occupied houses.
Require the mortgage industry to provide status reports on the number of mortgages it has modified. Resolution of the foreclosure crisis will require that large numbers of unworkable mortgages be converted to more stable loans. To date, however, despite pressure from Congress and the press, lenders and servicers have modified only about 1% of subprime mortgages. This obviously has to change. We cannot take the industry at its words that it will follow through on an agreement to convert loans expeditiously. Accordingly, the agreement must impose on lenders and servicers an obligation to regularly report their modifications.
Mr. Secretary, if you produce an agreement that lacks these provisions, I will pursue another course to end the crisis:
I will consider legislation that enables lenders to convert unworkable mortgages into stable, affordable loans without the permission of investors. Protection from lawsuits will remove the obstacle that keeps lenders, servicers and others from turning mortgages that were designed to fail into mortgages families can afford. Right now, servicers who process monthly loan payments and interface with homeowners have flexibility to modify loans. However, they are reluctant to fully exercise this discretion in part because they fear investor lawsuits. Investors who own the securities into which the mortgages have been packaged may assert that they are harmed when servicers help at-risk borrowers. Protection from lawsuits could enable the servicers to help homeowners avoid foreclosures, help investors avoid the losses they would otherwise suffer, and help the economy.
I also propose to provide financial assistance to communities on the frontlines of the crisis:
A fund of up to $5 billion to help hard-hit communities and distressed homeowners weather the foreclosure crisis. The fund will support initiatives by states, cities, and community groups to reduce foreclosures, and to help cities cope with the financial and social costs associated with an increase in vacant properties. The fund will provide a much-needed boost to communities already feeling the effects of the economic downturn. States are already piloting programs to stem foreclosures. Many of the programs provide financial counseling to at-risk homeowners, help borrowers work out solutions with lenders and educate homeowners about predatory lending. Studies demonstrate that the overwhelming majority of families that receive financial counseling ultimately avoid foreclosures. Financial counseling can cost as little as $3,000 per household, while each foreclosure costs a local community $227,000 when the harm to surrounding property values is included. Foreclosure prevention is more critical than ever. The concentration of foreclosures in particular neighborhoods has a negative ripple effect on communities. It leads to higher rates of crime, lower tax revenues, and lower property values. Low-income communities are especially at risk. Risky subprime loans are three times more likely in low-income neighborhoods than in high-income ones. Minority communities are also disproportionately at risk because subprime loans are five times more likely in predominantly black neighborhoods than in predominantly white neighborhoods. The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that 55% of African-Americans and 46% of Latinos who purchased homes in 2005 received subprime mortgages. Those loans were mostly adjustable rate mortgages, and most of them will experience escalations in the monthly payments either this year or next. The foreclosure crisis threatens to undo the gains in minority homeownership rates. Lawsuits have been filed against mortgage lenders alleging discriminatory practices. Regulators should be especially attentive to these concerns.
In March I called on the mortgage industry to observe a “foreclosure timeout” so that lenders and borrowers could work out solutions. I also wrote to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urging him to act swiftly to curb abusive and irresponsible lending practices. Just two weeks later, however, you told Congress that the subprime problem was “contained.” Unfortunately it was not. While you and others in the Administration misdiagnosed the problem, over 1 million additional foreclosure notices were sent out. Later, I called on the Administration to convene a “crisis conference” that gathered the housing stakeholders–lenders, investors, mortgage servicers, regulators, representatives of homeowners, and others–to devise a way of modifying the large number of unworkable mortgages. I am glad that the Administration has at least heeded this call.
Now that you have gathered the housing stakeholders, it is imperative that you negotiate an agreement appropriate to the scale of the problem. The proposals I have outlined provide the framework for a comprehensive workout, not a bailout. This is a moment of shared responsibility. Investors, lenders, and homeowners all have a part to play and sacrifices to make. While we work to solve the immediate problem, I call on the Administration, the regulators, and the mortgage industry to ensure that the abuses of recent years never recur. There must be a commitment to tightening underwriting standards and disclosure obligations. Federal prohibitions against abusive lending must be vigorously enforced. Prepayment penalties must be eliminated. Brokers must be subject to federal registration. Mortgage servicing fraud and foreclosure rescue fraud must be prosecuted. Homeowners and homebuyers must have greater access to financial counseling. I have already announced proposals to accomplish many of these things. It is unfortunate that the Administration has been so slow to act. But now that you and others are engaged, I urge you to make the bold decisions that the situation warrants. Thank you for your attention to this critical issue.
Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Home Prices Show Record Decline




In Sept S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 4.9% y/o/y, the biggest drop since the data began in 1988 -- but in-line with expectations. It's the 9th straight month of declines. Lower house prices will help to clear out excess inventories (a lot much more than rate cuts).
Here's the money quote from Shiller:
"The declines in the national figure are notable for two reasons. First, the 3rd quarter decline, at 1.7%, was the largest quarterly decline in the index’s 21-year history. And, second, the year-over-year decline posted its second consecutive record low at -4.5%. Consistent with prior 2007 reports, there is no real positive news in today’s data. Most of the metro areas continue to show declining or decelerating returns returns on both an annual and monthly basis.
All 20 metro areas were in decline in September over August. Even the five metro areas that still have positive annual growth rates -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Portland and Seattle -- show continued deceleration in returns."
Here's the metro overview:
S&P/Case-Shiller Index Release - September 2007 Index



A FED rate cut won't help this slow process of adjusting prices to economic reality. Banks continue to tighten guidelines and the major mortgage insurance companies AIG, GE are pulling out of providing lenders protection from default on anyone with less than a 620 FICO. Mortgage rates and especially jumbo mortgage rates for prime borrowers are at the best levels in years. These items and the belief by the public at large that prices were irrational will pressure the real estate market for severals years. As an example of the moves that have occured so far. This is from our friends at Sacramento Area Flippers in Trouble











8112 Sacramento StFair Oaks, CA 95628
Total Loss: $390,000
Percent Loss: 33.1%
Asking Price: $789,000Bedrooms:4 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3501
Listing History:Down 36.9% from $1,250,000 On 2006-04-09Down 34.2% from $1,199,000 On 2006-06-16Down 33.1% from $1,179,000 On 2006-07-15Down 28.2% from $1,099,000 On 2006-09-16Down 33.1% from $1,179,000 On 2006-09-30Down 49.1% from $1,549,000 On 2007-07-14Down 34.2% from $1,200,000 On 2007-08-18Down 1.3% from $799,000 On 2007-10-20Days on market: 594# of Times Listed: 6






11836 Delavan CirRancho Cordova, CA 95742
Total Loss: $323,500
Percent Loss: 32.3%
Asking Price: $679,000Bedrooms:6 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:5600
Listing History:Down 38.3% from $1,100,000 On 2006-09-16Days on market: 434# of Times Listed: 3



6030 Eagles Nest RdSacramento, CA 95830
Total Loss: $300,000
Percent Loss: 33.3%
Asking Price: $600,000Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3039
Listing History:Down 33.3% from $899,000 On 2006-05-25Days on market: 569# of Times Listed: 3



6415 Valenda CtElk Grove, CA 95757
Total Loss: $294,500
Percent Loss: 42.5%
Asking Price: $399,000Bedrooms:5 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:2954
Listing History:Down 27.5% from $550,000 On 2007-06-16Days on market: 161# of Times Listed: 2


11999 Mandolin WayRancho Cordova, CA 95742
Total Loss: $288,000
Percent Loss: 43.2%
Asking Price: $379,000Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:2885
Listing History:Down 20.2% from $475,000 On 2007-08-04Down 17.4% from $459,000 On 2007-09-08Down 11.7% from $429,000 On 2007-09-29Days on market: 112# of Times Listed: 3
If a peak at Sacramento, CA wasn't enough look over at Phoenix Flippers in Trouble. When will the bleeding stop? 08, 2011? Make a comment while it's still FREE of charge.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Countrywide:Sorry you can't afford it.


Obviously, you are well aware of the credit crunch and the impact it has had thus far on the once roaring real estate markets. I say it's just the tip of the iceberg. Over half the loans in CA in 2006 were NEGAM or interest only. That is a small window into the loans that pushed the bubble further and will lead to a larger, more protracted collapse than anyone anticipates. Those days seem like ancient times in the mortgage world. Countrywide announced this today:



As you may be aware, federal regulatory agencies have issued joint guidance which impacts the qualifying methodology for non-traditional mortgage products. This guidance was designed to better address risks associated with non-traditional mortgage products that offer interest-only and/or negative amortization payment features and to better support the needs of those borrowers who might not understand these types of risks. In an effort to further align our lending strategy with this guidance, effective Monday, November 19, 2007 Countrywide®, America's Wholesale Lender® began calculating borrower repayment capacity for non-traditional mortgage products using the following three criteria:



The greater of the Note Rate or the Fully Indexed Rate
A full amortizing payment
A loan amount which includes the total potential negative amortization
The resulting qualifying payment amount will be used to calculate both the Housing and the Debt-to-Income (DTI) Ratios for the loan transaction. The qualifying loan amount including the total potential negative amortization is determined as follows:
New York - 110% of the original loan amount
All other states - 115% of the original loan amount Please note, for ARM loans with MTA or COFI indices, the qualifying interest rate will be calculated using the fully indexed rate (index + margin) plus an "adjuster." The adjuster is a variable which will be used to annualize the MTA or COFI indices due to the "lagging" nature of these two indices.

The bottom line is that a borrower has to qualify at the highest possible payment the loan could have in the future. During the boom everyone underwrote to the minimum payment, either the interest only or the lower NEGAM payment. Otherwise very few of these loans would have been approved. That's how you had someone making $100k buying a 800k house. The normal historic lending ratio is to have a loan balance that doesn't exceed 4x your gross annual income.
The exotic loans that were everywhere and are now like neutron bombs, destroying the borrower but leaving the home standing are no longer available. Countrywide's action is not the first major lender to dramatically tighten lending guidelines. But, I highlight their action because they originated about 20% of all mortgage loans year to date. The removal of leverage has been very rapid. The decline of real estate in the hot markets has just begun. I am an optimist by nature but I believe we are in a recession now and we likely will be in a deep recession until 2010. The FED can't cut rates to bail anybody out because the dollar will collapse even further. Creating a whole series of global problems. It's time for belt tightening for the American consumer. Don't let this spoil your Thanksgiving. Be thankful for what matters most in life. Pray that we buckle down and fight our way back to becoming the shinning beacon of hope on the hill that world expects and we deserve to be.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Recession and possible depression. Can I get some prozac with that?

Finally the "recession" talk is making headlines. The only thing right now that drives me wild is that there is still a discussion that the US will face a recession.... If the US would use a more "realistic" formula I assume that the recession is already here.... The clearest sign might be that Starbucks reported the first decline ever in customer visits. Hmm, five dollar coffee is a necessity right? Watch for 7-11 to pick up all the old Starbucks customers who downgrade. The good old substitution effect. Take a look at the warnings we have seen from Coach, Kohl's, JC Penny, etc. They are all reporting sharp drop offs in traffic YOY. Walmart is reporting various signs of consumer downgrading as well. But Ferrari is sold out for the year. So at least the rich are still doing well. I know you were worried for a minute that we were in serious trouble.


IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability”. In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started. Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort Recession in America / America's vulnerable economy







Also in case you think BusinessWeek and The Economist forgot to take their anti-depressants I would encourage you to think about what the CEO of the one largest banks in the US said today:

Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf dropped the "D" word today: "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression," Stumpf said at a banking conference in New York. Stumpf said the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender and fifth-largest U.S. bank was "not immune" from the storm, but was well-positioned to ride it out, despite expectations for "elevated" credit losses from home equity loans into 2008. Are we in a recession? Post your thoughts or anecdotal evidence. Free speech still works here.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Fired: Heads roll as Mortgage Bets Collapse.




This has been a dramatic week on Wall St. We have seen multi-billion dollar losses disclosed from almost all global banks. CEO's at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch have been sacked because of mortgage losses and unacceptable risk management. The shoe dropped when the $100 billion dollar M-LEC super conduit that CITI and other banks were working to setup with the US Treasury dept stalled. I wonder why. Heard in the back alley of Wall St,"Psss, hey I have a box here of mortgage paper that we modeled to be worth $20 billion. Would you loan us money against it? We are a little low on liquid cash because we are investing so much in these great mortgages. Oh no, you can't look inside, but trust us we have more PhDs calculating the value of these holdings than any other bank. We are CITI after all." The idea was to package all the junk mortgage paper in a massive pool and have other banks buy the paper. The problem continues to be that everyone is valuing the paper according to some rocket science model not what the market price is. Granted their isn't a real market for subprime or ALT-A, aka scratch and dent mortgage paper. To get an idea how bad it is inside the belly of mortage lending, here is a chart of 2007 Prime HELOC loans. These are perfect credit borrowers. Known as the ABX-HE-AAA. What this means is that the average current value of these loans is .70 on the dollar. This is largely because of an illiquid market, foreclosures, defaults and the great unknown of how these loans will perform in years to come. In the foreclosure wave sweeping the nation HELOCs are completely wiped out. Total loss. So the market believes right now that a third of the money lent will never be paid back or recovered in foreclosure. Gee, no wonder it is very difficult to find a HELOC to turn on the household ATM above 80% loan to value.
Credit will continue to get tighter until the losses stop. It could be years of bank confessions as the unwind occurs and the bubble deflates. I would expect to see residential real estate to fall in the bubble markets through 2011 because of all the resetting paper. The foreclosures that are on the market now are people who stopped paying in Feb/Mar, well before the credit freeze, high gas prices, and the fall of real estate price declines really gathered momentum. It's called creative destruction. The weak hands give up assets to the strong buyers. Houses in bubble areas continue to get more affordable for people running the make sense economic calculations. The buyers that are circulating now at open houses are putting 15-20% down payments, getting fixed rates and fully documenting income. Sure prices might drop but they are in it for the long haul and they can easily make the payment on their $500k home that some fool bought for $700k in 2005. This decade won't soon be forgotten for it's massive excess and dramatic belt tightening following the bubble.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

FED Cuts, housing continues downward spiral.


At 11:15a PST the FED announced a small rate cut of 0.25% this produced an immediate rally in stocks and a sell off in bonds. Most mortgage rates rose as the FED statement indicated that they were concerned about inflation. I know I see it throughout the everyday economy. Have you bought gas or groceries recently? Inflation is the enemy of the lender as it destroys the value of the money they receive over the life of the loan. The dollar fell following the announcement and oil spiked to a record high. Oil is traded in dollars so as the value falls relative to other currencies the price per barrel rises in general. Gas prices should follow suit in the coming days.


How does this matter at all to housing? Well, I would expect rates to remain somewhat range bound throughout the next few weeks. Any additional confessions of major losses by world banks on mortgage paper would result in a flight to quality that would push high quality mortgage rates down.


In other housing news that is sure to put pressure on prices is Citigroups announcement today that they will no longer do purchase money 2nd mortgages in CA. This is Citi's way of avoiding the meltdown in housing in bubblicious California.


Case-Shiller announced their August housing report yesterday. They produce the most widely respected index on housing. They track individual metros. Here is a breakout chart from Time Magazine. Some cities look like a roller coaster ride at Six Flags, enjoy:


Thursday, October 25, 2007

Falling home values=NO refinance options for millions.



The collapse in home values is proceeding at an ever increasing pace. Sites such as Irvine Housing Bubble, Sacramento Area Blog, and Phoenix Flippers Blog highlight the collapse of values in the last year. Especially, within the last three months we have seen a big drop in appraised values. You say home prices aren't dropping much? Well, investors/banks don't care if Joe Six Pack has a home on the market for $800k as a comparable value for a person refinancing. What matters is what has sold in the last month and the amount of foreclosures moving prices in that micro market. This is causing severe problems for solid money good clients with perfect FICOs, documented income and reserves. The higher the loan to value, the higher the mortgage interest rate, and often mortgage insurance is required. Mortgage loans are not being done at 100% loan to value above 417k on single family homes. Folks with jumbo mortgage loans resetting in the near future should carefully examine their financial plans, the market reality and consider refinancing, selling or riding out their existing loan. Next year $700 billion dollars worth of mortgages reset to full market rates. This is not a subprime problem, this is a global credit crunch. Those who don't plan, plan to fail by throwing their future to the vagaries of the market. And now, back to Lisa with celebrity news to keep us distracted.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Countrywide REO goes from 13k to 195k?


A developing story "scandal" started this morning when investors/realtors noticed that Countrywide on it's REO search site noted 180k more properties listed across the country. The new additions state that no broker has been assigned. I checked a few CA listings and they are indeed foreclosed properties. Check it out yourself Countrywide Foreclosure Blog.

Is this the disclosure that breaks the Countrywide balance sheet to have Bank of America come to the rescue?

Monday, October 22, 2007

Pain or Pleasure:Two Charts.



















I present for your viewing pleasure or pain depending on your position in this market the latest mortgage reset chart and the foreclosure time table.

Remember that the foreclosures that are on the auction block or listed on the local MLS have been in process for many months. Word on the street is that lenders are trying to delay foreclosures in the "HOPE" that the borrower will be able to begin making the payments again. Seldom happens. The bulk of foreclosure filings won't occur in my informed opinion until 2009. The big resets of ALT-A(above subprime but below prime) occur in the period of 09-11. This will be very interesting, as these folks will reset to full market rates or if they are smart they would have refinanced their mortgage before the market rate reset.
We live in an instant society, unfortunately this slow unwind of Candyland prices will take years. Every bubble cheerleading pundit wants to say, "It's over and we go up from here." How long in your infinite wisdom will the unwind last? Comment, your opinion counts.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Market Falling, Banks failing? The end?

NO. But it helps to catch your eye with a dramatic title. Enjoy the Doors "The End"


Does any of the financial meltdown effect you? Or is it just a curious event on Wall St? Enjoy your weekend.

Market Meltdown benefits the SOLID borrower.

With the large drop in the US stock market and the bank losses over the last few days we have seen a massive drop in mortgage rates for our clients. The loans with the biggest investor demand and best price improvements are for "money good credits." Low loan to value, high income, strong FICO and ample reserves. It is a flight to quality across the board. Investors in treasurys and mortgage backed securities only want the filet mignon. The ground beef they purchased from New Century, Ameriquest and these exotic NEGAMs are a causing Montezuma's revenge all over the bank balance sheet. They only want the rock solid risk scenarios because Wall St is in a state of fear as global financial firms one after the other come to the confessional with massive multi-billion dollar loan losses. Remember these are loans that started having trouble over six months ago that are in foreclosure or sold off as non-performing to another institution. From all the evidence we have seen these write offs and tightening of credit for riskier loans will continue unabated for at least 1-2 years. Here is an excerpt from the Wachovia call today courtesy of Calculated Risk.

"Much of the increase in non-performing loans and the losses are on loans in certain California markets that have experienced fairly steep declines in prices. Our delinquency call centers report that the primary reasons for borrowers struggling to pay are three fold. First is reduction of income or underemployment. Second is the assumption of additional debt from lenders other than Wachovia and thereby changing the credit profile from the origination of the loan. And third unemployment. We have seen some uptick in unemployment in some of these markets. Let me also point out that while the average current estimate at the appraised value of non-performing loans is 77%, there is $380 million in balances out of the total $1.7 billion where the current estimate of value is over 90%. Actually on that pool, averages in the high 90s, again reflecting the dramatic decline of house prices in certain markets. These particular loans have a low loan to value of just under 80% at origination. It's interesting to note here that problems in these markets, really for all lenders seem to be across the board without originating FICO, the type of loan or the property. Given our outlook for continued weakness in the housing market and possibility for slow income consumer sector, we anticipate loans on consumer mortgage book continue to increase over the next few quarters and that losses will be up albeit fairly modest charge operates. To manage the increase in loans in foreclosure, we have significantly increased our staff responsible for handling Oreo properties and working with delinquent borrowers. Prepare the property to sell and sometimes choosing to maybe take a somewhat higher loss on that sale rather than risk holding out for a top dollar opportunity that may or may not come down the road.” emphasis added

If you would like to subscribe to our Mortgage Market Update report send an email to mrmortgage at thegreatloan.com. Would prefer to put a link but then we would be too busy sorting through all the great deals for Viagra. Have a prosperous day.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Countrywide Buying America?

Countrywide has been doing very well recently in executing their plan to own all the homes in America. As you can see from the chart the growth of their real estate owned portfolio is impressive. I know they must be anxiously awaiting the wave of subprime loans resetting so they can get those keys. A well placed source at Countrywide stated that 70%+ of the subprime folks that are calling in to refinance can't refinance because they are upside down or can't afford the new risk adjusted rates that are between 8-12%+ for a 5/1 ARM. We are running a contest to see where the readers think the Countrywide REO portfolio will end by year end. We will be giving away a copy of Devil Take the Hindmost:A history of financial speculation by Edward Chancellor and a copy of The Black Swan:The impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Taleb. To participate please send your best guess to mrmortgage at thegreatloan.com. If you would like to be added to the Mortgage Market Report include that in your email as well. We will not spam you. Winner will be announced on Jan 1st.