How the Mortgage Bubble Really Topped Out.

Part of the trillions in bad loans were the option ARMs(pick-a-pay) This nice FED produced map brings a lot of clarity via time series spread of complex mortgages shown in a recent Chicago Fed publication. Nothing like a good real estate crash to bring things to a halt CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW:

http://chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/working_papers/2010/wp_17.cfm

Ben Bernanke 60 Minute Interview: Worth a View

Part 1



Part Duex

Rainy Day Savers Rewarded With Lowest Jumbo Mortgage Rates In History

It has been a tough couple of years — almost the proverbial perfect storm — for clients needing to refinance a jumbo loan.

The Great Recession(depression?) has cut home values, turning some jumbo loans upside down for borrowers. Falling values and tighter credit have made refinancing difficult and qualifying new borrowers even tougher unless they were very prudent over the last few years. Socking away money for the proverbial rainy day.

Low and no down payment and adjustable rate schemes are history. ARMs are available but clients want fixed. Why gamble with future rates when fixed is at historic lows?

But the storm may have completely passed. Across several states luxury home values have stabilized and insanely tough credit standards are being moved down to the 700 FICO score level or better, interest rates are at historic lows again, new creative loan plans are emerging and pent-up demand for high-end housing is eager to enter the market.

Cloud Computing Technology specialist David Sparks was surprised when we informed him he would be able to refinance his $1.5 million post modern-style house in Santa Monica and tap into the equity for an additional $75,000 so he could remodel his kitchen.

Sparks, refinanced his expensive adjustable-rate mortgage into a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage at 5.125 percent.

In 2009, the average rate on a 30-year jumbo mortgage was 6.86 percent compared to 5.25 percent in November, the lowest in history. That represents a significant savings for borrowers.

For example, a homeowner with a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage balance of $900,000 at 6.25 percent pays $5,541 a month. The same balance refinanced into a 5.00 percent jumbo loan reduces the monthly figure by $710.

The jumbo mortgage market is alive and well for well-qualified borrowers, with well-qualified being the key word if you are still paying close attention. And creditworthy consumers are waiting much longer to close their jumbo mortgages while banks pore over financial documents and complete due diligence. 

Borrowers face considerably more scrutiny than they did before the epic financial meltdown that started in 2008. With 10% of jumbo mortgages at least 60 days late the focus of underwriting is finding and lending to rock solid borrowers who have survived the financial storm by being prudent with their finances.

It used to be that high-earning borrowers with excellent credit and ample cash reserves could sign a new multi-million dollar jumbo mortgage or refinance an existing loan on their posh digs with no questions asked.

Of course, that was before the economy tanked and the housing market went belly-up, making lenders skittish about financing any type of mortgage, especially since they had to hold the loans they made on their balance sheets. Return of capital became the most important element of any loan. Those that qualify are being rewarded for their prudence.

Most client’s refinancing are saving 1-2 thousand dollars a month because they are dropping their interest rates over 1%. The majority of jumbo mortgage loans funded over the last quarter were 30Y fixed. Maybe running with the herd is right once in awhile. The latest chart should really demonstrate how much money is on sale for SOLID borrowers.

And above all please get a jumbo loan that makes sense for your short and long term financial plans. If your ready to start the conversation, contact one of our seasoned advisors by visiting our main site here. As always, have a prosperous day. 

Jumbo Mortgage: Prudent Borrowers Rewarded By Lowest Jumbo Rates Ever

Solid, ultra low interest rate jumbo mortgage loans are being actively funded by remembering the lending philosophy we relied on before the risk could be passed onto some unsuspecting pension fund via a CDO created by a trader at a Wall St Bank. With trillions in mortgage loan losses across the nation, major changes were needed. Regulatory reform passed Congress last week, but it wasn’t hard for the jumbo mortgage market to fix our own problems.

Normalcy has returned. The jumbo loan environment has settled into a prove it, we double verify it, and we fund it environment for well qualified borrowers. The recent national statistics show about 14% loans with a principal balance of 1m+ are at least 60 days late. This is up sharply in the last six months from the 9.78% figure that we ended 2009. Hopefully these default figures will flatten out and fall as the better jumbo loans of 09-10 perform much better than the loans closed in 04-08.

Against this backdrop jumbo loans are being funded only on a portfolio basis (Wall ST jumbo loan packaging is dead) to solid clients under the philosophy that the borrower and the amount of equity in the property should have an ample margin for the known/unknown risks a borrower/lender may face down the road. With regulators, taxpayers, shareholders and all stakeholders demanding sound lending the industry has delivered. I believe this only benefits the luxury market although it pushes out the marginal borrower and may result in some property value declines as the available buyers have thinned out a bit.

Sound lending has returned and borrowers are being ‘rewarded’ for their financial strength and prudence. Remember it’s a ‘prove it’ to us world now.

First and foremost, lenders are pulling copies of your tax returns directly from Uncle Sam. The idea here is to make sure that you haven't altered the copy of your last two years' tax returns that you provided when you signed your loan application. Lenders want to know if you might have exaggerated how much you earned.

Lenders also are going to great lengths to verify employment and liquid assets. We are seeking confirmation in writing from your H.R. department about what you earn, your position and how long you've worked there.


It's the same for your bank or brokerage accounts. Rather than being satisfied solely with the copies of the statements you provided, lenders are going directly to your financial services company to secure another set of those statements to make sure the numbers line up or that you just lost 200k betting that the latest iPhone signal problem would crush Apple’s stock price.

Lenders are no longer taking the appraiser's word for how much the property you want to buy or refinance is worth, either. Now, we are employing automated valuation models as well as an additional appraisal from a separate vendor to be certain the value estimate is on the money. This is especially true in highly distress markets or for very unique custom homes. After all, the bank is ‘buying’ the home and the borrower is signing to pay it back over 15-30 years.

Next in the line of close scrutiny is your credit score, but not just the score pulled when you applied for the loan. Now, our industry is pulling a second score shortly before closing to make sure that you haven't taken out a luxury car lease/loan, bought a houseful of furniture on credit or done something else that might change your ability to make your house payments.

Having passed all these double checks, a well qualified client with 20%+ equity, a 740 FICO or better, borrowing $1m on a primary residence could lock in the following jumbo loan rates in the majority of states:

5/1 ARM 3.625%
7/1 ARM 4.50%
10/1 ARM 4.90%
15Y Fixed 4.50%
30Y Fixed 5.125%

With a bit more equity and a higher FICO score these jumbo loan rates are even lower. I think people need to strongly consider locking in the lowest fixed jumbo mortgage rates we have ever seen. Most client’s refinancing are saving 1-2 thousand dollars a month because they are dropping their interest rates over 1%. The majority of jumbo mortgage loans funded over the last quarter were 30Y fixed. Maybe running with the herd is right once in awhile. The latest chart should really demonstrate how much money is on sale for SOLID borrowers.

And above all please get a jumbo loan that makes sense for your short and long term financial plans. As always, have a prosperous day.

Millions Of Luxury Homeowners Gambling With Their Jumbo Loan

Ten's of millions of luxury homeowners have adjusted from an ARM with a fixed rate period into a fully adjustable jumbo loan. Following the large drop in LIBOR rates since 2007, floating with the 6-month or 1 year LIBOR index has been an excellent risk homeowners took the last few years. Even if they were not aware of the relationship of their mortgage payment and the workings of the global short-term money market.

In the last few weeks it has become crystal clear that Europe is having a massive government debt crisis which started in Greece and is spreading throughout the European Union. This crisis is causing major moves in all the various LIBOR indexes and the action in Europe will translate into higher mortgage payments in the US whenever someone reaches their semi-annual adjustment period.


The underlying rate trend in these indexes in the last few weeks is a steady march higher as governments, banks and corporations are going to market to borrow hundred of billions of Euros. This is pushing LIBOR rates up for the 6- month and 1 year about .25% within the last two weeks. All the LIBOR indexes are at the highest levels in over a year despite massive liquidity being pumped into the system by the EU Central Bank and the FED.

Now we aren’t in the danger zone yet for US based jumbo mortgage loans that are floating considering that the average margin to the 1Y LIBOR is 2.50% arriving at a current floating rate of 3.25%. But a plausible scenario of a consistent flow of gov/corp borrowers, an improving global economy over the next year could push LIBOR rates consistently higher. Any real growth in the economy will be meet with higher interest rates and this will be reflected on the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of jumbo loan mortgages that are sitting with rates of about 3.25-4% now.

We think homeowners that are floating against the LIBOR indexes without a plan to sell soon or get another ARM this year or a fixed jumbo mortgage are gambling with their mortgage payment. Not having a solid plan is a very dangerous proposition given the huge debt crisis that continues to unfold around the world. I am a firm believer in having full coverage auto insurance given the cost of coverage vs the financial risk of an accident. Millions of American’s are just waiting for a financial accident when they get their new rate increase notice. Most ARMs adjust every six months with a 30-60 day notice of the new interest rate and payment. The jumbo loan trend has only been down for the last few years as the world almost fell into a financial black hole during the 07-08 meltdown.

I think with the economic recovery gaining speed that it is only prudent to lock in another ARM or a fixed jumbo mortgage while we are at the lowest rates in history. Avoiding an interest rate increase that for millions would come as a nasty surprise. If you need to refinance your jumbo mortgage within the next few years it’s prudent to explore your jumbo loan options now. As always, have a prosperous day.

Choosing a Government Loan Option in 2010

As interest rates continue to flirt with record lows, homebuyers turn to government-backed loans to finance their mortgages. With three major programs in place—VA loans, USDA loans and FHA loans—several demographics are given a helping hand to buy a place to call home.

Qualifying for government-backed loans tends to be easier than doing so for conventional loans. Credit requirements are less stringent, and borrowers usually don’t need huge financial reserves. Debt-to-income ratios are even more flexible.

VA Loans
In 1944, Congress created the Veterans Affairs Home Loan Guaranty program exclusively for our nation’s military service members. Still popular today, the program offers lower monthly payments thanks to competitive interest rates and the elimination of private monthly mortgage insurance. Borrowers qualifying for mortgage guidelines can even purchase a home with no money down, which is cited by borrowers as the program’s greatest strength.

For active-duty military members, VA loans come with interest rate caps. When borrowers close a deal with a VA loan, sellers may cover up to 6 percent of closing costs.
If VA loan borrowers want to make prepayments on the loan, they can do so without any penalty. Before borrowers default on a loan, the VA offers counseling and several options to avoid foreclosure.

With all of these benefits, it’s no wonder why VA loan volume surged 80 percent last year.
USDA Loans
Despite its temporary hiatus, the Rural Development program is designed to help low- and middle-income families in rural communities purchase homes. When the USDA designed the program in 1987, few lenders operated in rural areas, and now the program is too popular for its own good.

These loans are the only other no-money-down options. When borrowers need to pay money down, USDA loans allow family and non-profit organizations to pitch in. Just like VA loans, there is no mortgage insurance and interest rates are often lower than conventional financing options, and borrowers can finance 100 percent of the appraised value of a home. In 2009, the USDA insured more than 115,000 loans, which was more than double the 2008 figure.
FHA Loans
The oldest of the government-backed loans, FHA loans still draw plenty of prospective homebuyers. Interest rates for FHA loans don’t differ more than 0.125 percent from conventional loans. Unlike the other two government loans, FHA loans include a mortgage insurance, but one that is less expensive than a private insurance. The fee is included in monthly payments.

In some instances, borrowers can combine FHA loans with other loans, resulting in 0 percent down. Even with imperfect credit, borrowers can expect smaller down payments than those of conventional loans, as low as 3 percent. Much like USDA loans, borrowers can get down payment assistance from relatives and non profits.

Given the breadth of financial upsides built into government-backed loans, prospective homebuyers everywhere should consider one of these options. Check with a lender to help determine your eligibility for any government program.

Jumbo Loan Borrowers: How to Think About Buying Your Dream Home.

The enormous social pressure and the expectations that come with it lead to misunderstandings and confusion. Here's my advice to someone in the market:

• In an era where house prices rise reliably (which was 1963 to 2007), it was almost impossible to overpay for a house. It was an efficient market, and rising prices cover many mistakes. Investing in houses in the USA was a no-brainer. More leverage and more at stake just paid off more in the end. In 2006 many subprime and ALT-A lenders would allow nothing down up to a 1m jumbo loan with a 720 FICO score. Needless to say these loans defaulted at a 40%+ rate as people walked away when values dropped. The old mantra of buying as much house as possible with as little down payment as you could doesn’t work if values fall in the future.
• A house is not just an investment, it's a place to live. This is the only significant financial investment that has two functions.
• The psychology of down markets is irrational. Rising house prices might be efficient (many bidders for a single item lead to higher prices), but when there aren't so many bidders, irrational sellers (see #2) don't lower their prices accordingly. So, inventories get longer and it's easy for the prospective buyer to think that a certain price is the 'right' price because so many people are offering houses at that price. Just because someone offers a price, though, doesn't mean it's fair in a given market.
• Along the same lines, anchoring has a huge impact on housing prices. If someone offers a house for $1.7m and you think it's worth $1.2m, you don't offer that. No, of course not. The price is a mental and emotional anchor, and you're likely to offer far more because you are falling in love with a view, a certain floor plan or a special neighborhood.
• The social power of a luxury home is huge. When you buy a luxury home or a country estate, you are making a statement to your in-laws, your family, your neighbors and your business/social contacts. Nothing wrong with that, but the question you must ask yourself is, "how big a statement can I afford?" How much are you willing to spend on personal marketing and temporary self-esteem? This is a big social pressure faced by newly-wed couples, lawyers and doctors as they come out of school landing that deep six figure position.
• If buying a bigger house (or even a house with an extra living room or a 4 car garage) is going to keep you in stuck in the office 90 hours a week till the end of time, is it really worth it?
• By the time you buy a house, you probably have a family or have plans to bring some little owns into your life. Which means that this is a joint decision, a group decision, a decision made under stress by at least two people, probably people that don't have a lot of practice talking rationally about significant financial decisions that also have emotional and social underpinnings.
• If you have a steady career, matching your mortgage to your income isn't dumb. Given the recent environment with bonus money being cut and profit sharing taking a dip having a jumbo mortgage payment that is less than ¼ to 1/3 of take home pay can bring about a lot of piece of mind.
• Real estate brokers, by law, work for the seller (unless otherwise noted). And yet buyers often try to please the broker. You'll never see her again, don't worry about it. [Let me be really clear about what I wrote here, just in case you'd like to misinterpret it: When a prospect sees an ad or goes to an open house, she is about to interact with a broker. That broker, in almost every case, is hired by the seller and has a fiduciary responsibility to the seller to get the very best price for the house. There are exceptions, like buyer's brokers, but those brokers, as I said, note that they are representing the buyer--how can you represent someone without telling them? Many brokers like to pretend to themselves that they are representing both sides, and while that's a nice concept, that's not the law.
• You're probably not going to be able to flip your house in two years for a big profit. Maybe not even ten years. So revisit #2 and imagine that there is no financial investment, just a house you love. And spend accordingly.

I'm optimistic about the power of a house to change your finances, increase your net worth, to provide a foundation for a family and our communities. I'm just not sure you should buy more house than you can COMFORTABLY afford merely because houses have such good marketing.

And above all please get a jumbo loan that makes sense for your short and long term financial plans. As always, have a prosperous day.

Bet Against the American Dream. Now with Great Music!

Bet Against the American Dream from Alexander Hotz on Vimeo.

Jumbo Loan Borrowers: Risk Major Rate Increase

Cross-Posted with www.freerateupdate.com. The source for mortgage rate news.
Ten's of Millions of homeowners have adjusted from an ARM with a fixed rate period into a fully adjustable jumbo loan. Following the large drop in LIBOR rates since 2007, floating with the 6-month or 1 year LIBOR index has been an excellent risk home owners took the last few years. Of course now we hear solid information that job losses have stopped and we are in the midst of an economic recovery. The underlying rate trend in these indexes is a push higher on each piece of good news around the world regrading the stabilization of consumer retail sales, auto sales, and the home purchase market. Any real growth in the economy will be meet with higher interest rates and this will be reflected on the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of jumbo loan mortgages that are sitting with rates of about 3.50-4% now.

We think home owners that are floating against the LIBOR indexes without a plan to sell soon or get another ARM or better yet a fixed jumbo loan are living without interest rate insurance. I am a firm believer in having full coverage auto insurance given the cost of coverage vs the financial risk of an accident. They are just waiting for a financial accident when they get the new rate increase notice. Most ARMs adjust every six months with a 30-60 day notice of the new interest rate and payment. The jumbo loan rate trend has only been down for the last few years as the world almost fell off a cliff during the 07-08 meltdown. I think with the economic recovery gaining speed that it is only prudent to get some jumbo mortgage interest rate insurance and lock the lowest rates in history. Avoid an interest rate increase that for millions would come as a nasty surprise. If you need to refinance your jumbo mortgage within the next few years it’s prudent to explore your jumbo loan options now. As always, have a prosperous day.

Jumbo Loans: Post Steroid Lending Era

Cross-Posted with www.freerateupdate.com. The source for mortgage rate news.

The value of luxury homes has been declining for 3-4 years now depending on the particular city. We won’t go into specific markets here as that is better explained on a granular level by the Case-Shiller Research and individual neighborhood analysis of 750k-4m luxury homes by your local luxury realtor. Above 4m is rarified air and is declining but has much different dynamics such as what the NFL/NBA/MLB contracts will look like in 2012 and if the hedge fund industry will continue to pay the large performance bonus numbers of the recent past. You get the idea.

Luxury home prices shouldn’t be declining some could say because:

• Financial markets the world over have recovered nicely from the March 2009 lows.
• Unemployment is running less than 4% for seasoned, highly skilled, well educated professionals (doctors, engineers, lawyers, etc). The rest of the working economy is running north of 10% unemployment if you believe the official stats.
• Jumbo loan borrowers didn’t do the crazy exotic financing that imploded in subprime and pay option ARMs weren’t very common in the 1-4m market.

I agree in theory but what is often misunderstood by jumbo mortgage borrowers is the crazy lending that was done during the bubble years of the last decade that pushed values up almost daily. They don’t know the huge impact on luxury home prices of removing the steroid juiced lending of Bear Stearns, Lehman et al. The thousands of banks/brokers that sold their ultimately toxic/destructive jumbo loan programs that ended up in bundled securities that investors curse the day they bought.

Everybody knows we have had massive government bailouts and are in a recession. But they didn’t know that their home was appreciating rapidly during the bubble because everything was being bid up in their neighborhood, city and nationally with juiced money from casino like investment banks. Most clients I speak to thought their neighbors had better paying careers or had been better investors/savers. No, they were outbidding and buying on the juice of Wall St casino money. Also the move up buyers with equity in their starter home that are ready to buy in the gated community are on the endangered species list in most cities.

With the steroids that powered crazy out of your mind lending removed, the puffed up and totally juiced real estate market of 10-30% annual price gains in some markets is gone and never to return. Hopefully. The inventory of homes for sale priced at $750,000 to $1 million is now 20 months, vs. 11 months for homes in the $100,000 to $250,000 range, the National Association of Realtors reports. With all these forces at work the body of luxury real estate is shrinking back to normal based on the fundamentals of ability to pay and put a healthy down payment of hard earned money into a home purchase.

Did you know that at the height of the insanity most people could borrower a million dollars with a strong FICO score and a reasonably believable stated income?  No money down and little document verification! Those are the luxury foreclosures that litter Florida, Arizona, Nevada, California etc.

The return to sanity with the jumbo loan lending of the banks and credit unions left standing has resulted in substantial equity requirements, fully documented income, a verified chunk of savings/investment assets and a requirement of 1-2 full appraisal reports of what the home is worth now based on sales of similar properties in the last 30-60 days.

I feel for the luxury homeowners that have “…lost hundreds of thousands of my equity.” But the money wasn’t real unless they cashed it out at the top via a refinance/HELOC or a sale. The casino lending is gone and hopefully won’t return again. The most critical element in getting the best and most competitive jumbo mortgage rate is EQUITY.

My crystal ball is in for repair so don’t be mad if I am not perfectly correct on this prediction but we believe that jumbo loan rates will be higher within the next year and luxury home values will continue to slowly decline in most cities across the country as the effect of steroid lending wears off and return to the stability of real local economic fundamentals. If you need to refinance your jumbo mortgage within the next few years it’s prudent to explore your jumbo loan options now. As always, have a prosperous day.

Jumbo Mortgage Borrowers:Avoiding Mistakes of the Past

Cross-Posted with www.freerateupdate.com

Over the years, I have had countless conversations with home buyers about their jumbo mortgages. From 2003 to 2008, a typical a cocktail party or a BBQ invariably went something like this:

Home-Buyer: We got a great deal on our new mortgage.
Me: Did you do a 30 year fixed jumbo loan or something more exotic?
HB: 30 year fixed jumbo mortgage— at 4.5% !
Me:  Sorry, but that’s not 30 year fixed — rates are 6.5% today. That’s probably a 2/28, with a reset in 200X.
HB: No, we definitely asked for a 30 year fixed.
Me:  Well, that’s not what you got — its impossible to get that loan at that rate today.
HB: We’re good negotiators.
Me: Jumbo Mortgage rates are set by the bond market. Banks charge a mark up ABOVE the rates that they can borrow money. They can’t get 30 year money at 4.5%, so you can’t get 4.5%.  There is only so much negotiating you can do with the bond market.
HB: Well, its definitely a 30 year fixed.
Me: Please make the pain stop . . .

And so on.

Huge swaths of people, did not understand what they were buying, what it cost them, what their other options were, whether they could afford it or not.

I am not saying this to exonerate their ignorance — it is inexcusable in my opinion. Adults must take responsibility for their decision making, regardless of how foolish it may have been. That home buyers cannot figure out a basic financing document is beyond my comprehension. However, that is the way it is. We must acknowledge the simple reality, if we wish to avoid this problem in the future. That’s why we need to insure consumers understand what they are purchasing.

We are happy to see clients take a serious look at their current loan and the pros/cons of their various jumbo loan ARM refinance options vs the certainty of a refinance into a fixed jumbo mortgage. I think this a great change from the days of simply selecting the “cheapest” option of “no-points, no fees” on a jumbo 5/1 Interest Only ARM. Home owners realize their risks and are trying to make the most informed decision possible.  The prudent behavior by lenders and borrowers will result in much better jumbo loan performance and better lending standards in the future.

Now for the meat and potatos of jumbo mortgage rates this week. The trend was largely sideways action for products that aren’t deposit based. Our portfolio products dropped by .125-.25% across the product spectrum  for money good credits. Here is a sampling

30Y Fixed Jumbo Mortgage 5.625% paying 1 discount point

7Y ARM Jumbo Loan 4.50% paying 1 discount point

*In order to help customers compare similar jumbo loans, we use the following parameters in conducting our rate survey: A jumbo loan amount of $1m, sales price $1.3m. Each loan is a purchase transaction, 720 credit score, 30 day rate lock, taxes and insurance being escrowed, single family primary residence with fully documented income and verified assets(savings/investments).

Fixed Jumbo Mortgage Rates at Historic Lows

Cross post.

Los Angeles Feb 24th (Freerateupdate.com)

Warning: A little technical.This is the Whole Wheat 8 Grain Variety of our ongoing commentary on the jumbo mortgage market.







As the top chart shows, 30-year fixed rate jumbo mortgage rates are going for a post-crisis low, a rate not seen since 2005. With a few scattered exceptions, the rate you get today is about as low as it has ever been in history. Conforming rates are still very close to all-time lows.

As the second chart shows, the Federal Reserve has put on the books about $1.25T of mortgage securities(tan section) which completes the program as announced. Anything could change as the conforming mortgage market tries to stand on its own. If rates skyrocket(unlikely) expect FED action as a stable housing market is a distinct policy of the Obama Administration and the too big to fail banks. The TBTF are sitting on north of 4m homes that they will need to short sale or foreclose on this year per various estimates being thrown around the industry.



The fundamentals driving the jumbo mortgage rates (i.e., 10-year Treasury yields and the spread between MBS and Treasury yields that investors demand in order to compensate them for the prepayment risk of mortgage-backed securities) suggest that we are very unlikely to see rates go lower than they are now. Treasury yields are quite low from a historical perspective, and spreads are about as tight as they have ever been.

One other interesting fact that shows up in the first chart is that the difference between jumbo and conforming mortgage rates is still quite large given that a conforming 30Y fixed is at 4.75% currently. That means that even if conforming rates move higher, it will likely take awhile before jumbo rates move much higher; the spread between them could compress by another 25-50 bps for the absolute Super Prime Credits with 30-40% equity and substantial investment assets. aka Money Good Credits.

However, I should also point out that the declining spread between jumbo and conforming loan rates is a very good sign that private capital is returning to the jumbo mortgage market in general. The Fed is only buying conforming mortgages, not jumbos, so jumbos have been outperforming conforming MBS, which in turn suggests that private capital has been actively seeking out the higher yields on jumbos. That is also an indication that when the Fed stops buying MBS at the end of March, there is no reason to expect jumbo mortgage rates to move significantly higher. A lot of pressure is building because of the RECORD default rate of 9.6% which prevents investors such as pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds from aggressively buying jumbo mortgage bonds. These twin forces lead us to believe we will see rates in the 5.75-6.50% range on the 30Y Fixed Jumbo Loan throughout the year.

We continue to believe that prospective homebuyers and most long term homeowners would be well-served to choose a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage instead of an adjustable rate. But, one size fits all advice never works as you well know.  Fixed rates are very low from a historical perspective, while the short-term rates that drive ARMs are very likely to rise significantly in coming years. With the fixed rate you get the certainty of locking in a historically low jumbo loan rate, but with adjustable rates you are exposed to considerable uncertainty down the road, because no one knows today how high short-term rates will be in the future. We always advise matching the loan term with personal and financial plans.

Have a prosperous day.