Waking Up to The Problem Most Americans Face

Mort Zuckerman of U.S. News and World Report gave a gloomy assessment of the housing market yesterday: he gets it. This is a housing depreciation problem not a "contained subprime" issue.

How much longer will house prices keep falling? That collapse is a larger threat
to our economic well-being than even the headline-grabbing problems of our
increasingly frozen financial system. We’ve had half a century of rising home
values, capped by an inflation-adjusted rise of 85 percent from 1997 to 2006.
Now the loss of value tops $1 trillion, and the financial world has incurred
hundreds of billions of dollars of losses on the premise that U.S. home prices
would never fall. The median price of a new home is at $206,500, receding to
where it was in November of 2003, thus wiping out more than three years of price
appreciation. It takes 6.3 months to sell a finished home compared with 4.3
months a year ago. The ratio of inventory to sales is the highest since October
1981—there’s an unsold extra backlog of a million single-family homes and
condominiums. Builders have cut their housing starts by approximately 40 percent
over the past year. David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch estimates construction will
fall from a million units to approximately 700,000 units, an all-time low since
World War II.
House prices, though, haven’t fallen enough to tempt buyers,
despite sales incentives and rebates. According to the Conference Board, fewer
Americans plan to buy in the next six months than at any time since 1994. The
decline in conventional mortgage rates has failed to spark sales because it has
been trumped by tighter lending standards. Speculators, who helped fuel the
bubble, have virtually disappeared from the market.

The rest of the article is also interesting, and he did a good job of discussing the problem of fighting a deflating bubble with lower interest rates:

Lower rates can help those with adjustable-rate mortgages, but they cannot stop
the deflation of the housing bubble or prevent a tidal wave of mortgage
defaults. This is partly because mortgage rates reflect the 10-year treasury
bond yield more than the federal funds rate. That rate has dropped, but the
spread of both fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages over treasuries has widened,
which means smaller declines in mortgage rates. Then there are those many
borrowers who got mortgages in 2003 and 2004 when the federal funds rate was 1
percent; they’re not going to get a better deal than that. And if they now have
zero or negative equity in their home, they won’t be able to refinance in any
event.
Zuckerman made this recommendation:
There is no time to delay in
combating the trends. Monetary policy cannot make bad investments turn good.
Cheaper mortgages won’t cure the market where properties are plunging so much in
value. The collapse of value will affect all homeowners and, through them, the
whole economy. It’s bound to be the most pressing issue in this presidential
election year. Voters in the primaries and general election should look to
candidates with credible policies in mind to address this downturn.

Too bad "candidates with credible policies" are in short supply. Too many of our politicians seem to believe that government can somehow stop the trainwreck if enough money is thrown at the problem. The FED and ECB have injected north of $500B into the markets in the last few weeks and mortgage rates have gone higher in the last few days. The FED is pushing on a string. Don't wait for the FED or a politician to handle your mortgage situation. Be proactive and review your options today as the programs, rates and/or your home value may be much worse tomorrow. We have spoken to dozens of people recently who can't refinance because they have little or no equity. The recent bill passed does nothing for these folks. The effects of the downturn can be addressed, but the downturn itself cannot be stopped. Policy can’t combat gravity.

New Conforming Loan Limit Becomes Law.

President Bush on Wednesday signed H.R. 5140, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, making official a temporary boost to both conforming and FHA loan limits. This might be the stiff drink the real estate market needs. The new law boosts the GSE conforming limit to as much as $729,750 through the end of this year, and also raises FHA lending limits to the same level for high-cost areas.

“I know many Americans are worried about meeting their mortgages,” President Bush said prior to signing the bill. “My administration is working to address this problem.” Bush cited HOPE NOW and the recently announced Project Lifeline initiative as examples of ongoing work by the administration to address the housing crisis.

A White House-produced fact sheet covering the new growth package is available here.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development now has 30 days to publish a database of house prices that will be essential in determining which markets get access to the new ‘jumbo conforming’ or ‘expanded FHA’ loan products.

Of course, that could prove to be bit of a problem in and of itself, given that HUD doesn’t currently independently gather or otherwise publish home price data. Bankrate’s Holden Lewis was on this right from the start when Congress first passed the bill:
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or OFHEO, compiles periodic indexes of home prices. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use the OFHEO data each November to update the next year’s conforming limit.

The Federal Housing Finance Board and the National Association of Realtors both collect and publish home prices. The FHA takes information from both entities to calculate the FHA limits for each metro area.

Congress could have pegged the conforming and FHA limits to data collected by OFHEO, the Federal Housing Finance Board or the Realtors. But it didn’t. Instead, the law says: “The secretary of Housing and Urban Development shall publish the median house prices and mortgage principal obligation limits … for all areas as soon as practicable.” The law gives HUD 30 days to publish the database of house prices.

The simplest solution would be for HUD to use the same house price information it uses to calculate FHA loan limits. But a HUD spokesman says: “We have not yet determined if the same data will be used to make the new calculations.” That leaves lenders in the dark until HUD makes a decision.

While price designations aren’t yet known, a few industry sources close to the process have suggested that the new conforming limits won’t be as broadly applied as many might expect; just 15 counties in California might be designated as eligible for the loan limit increase, for example.
That’s not the only grey area out there, of course — there’s also the as-of-yet unclear issue of TBA trading in the secondary market that will need to be settled. Mortgage bonds are sold before the loan are completed and funded. That's why you lock in a rate. (The unconfirmed word from our sources today is still that the industry agency SIFMA wants to keep the new ‘jumbo conforming’ loans out of TBA pools.)

It’s also unclear exactly how the new jumbo conforming will price, given that neither Fannie nor Freddie have experience underwriting within the jumbo mortgage market.

Similarly, it isn’t exactly clear what the initial underwriting criteria will be, although most expect it to at least sit close to existing ‘traditional conforming’ guidelines — if not ending up more restrictive. “OFHEO has already gone on record saying that jumbo loans are more risky, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the underwriting guidelines end up being tighter than what you’d see for usual conforming products,” said one executive at a large lender, who asked not to be identified.

GOV:Worst is yet to come in housing and foreclosures.

From today's Lifeline Meeting In Washington.


Remember for every distressed seller there is an ecstatic buyer that is getting a bargain.

Diverging Jumbo Rates, should you take an ARM?

Jumbo Mortgage rates are highly sensitive to expectations for the U.S. economy.
When the economy is expected to sag, mortgage rates tend to fall
When the economy is expected to surge, mortgage rates tend to rise

Currently, the economy is expected to sag and surge in the later half of the year. I disagree but what live with what the market gives us. This is why adjustable-rate jumbo loan mortgage rates are holding their ground as fixed-rate jumbo mortgage rates increase.

Fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages are not as interchangeable as in the past and it's mostly because the Federal Reserve's routine has created expectations of runaway inflation later this year.
The "Fool in the Shower" bit goes like this:
A fool gets in the shower and it's freezing cold
To get warm, he flips the hot water on to full blast
Before long, the water goes way past warm and into hot. It burns him.
The fool turns the water back to cold and repeats the process in reverse.

The Federal Reserve is following the same pattern. The economy showed signs of weakness (i.e. being cold) last year so the Fed took steps to warm it up. Since September 2007, the Federal Reserve has shaved 2.25% from the Fed Funds Rate. With each successive cut, though, the Fed is turning the proverbial water farther towards "hot". This makes it more likely that the economy will go from "ice cold" to "scalding hot" sometime later this year.

Overheated means inflation comes back and now investors are taking notice and a quarter of all jumbo mortgage loans are owned by foreign investors and they don't like our falling dollar.
The growing likelihood of inflation is now priced into longer-term mortgage rates. Inflation erodes the value of mortgage bonds so it's causing long-term mortgage rates to rise.
Meanwhile, short-term rates are still reflecting the short-term economic weakness to which the Fed is responding. In the near-term, the absence of inflation is holding rates low for a host of products, including:
The 1-year ARM
The 3-year ARM
The 5-year ARM

And that's where it ends. There is a increase right at the 7-year marker. The 7-year ARM along with the 10-year ARM and the fixed products are all priced for the Fool in the Shower bit, jacked higher for inflation and the eroded dollar. Of every client is different, you should match your time frame for the home with your mortgage as best as possible. With all the consumer choice comes enormous responsibility.

Two months ago, the spread between a fixed-rate mortgage and a shorter-term adjustable-rate mortgage was .125%. Today, the gap is 0.625%. We are currently advising clients to consider the 5Y and the 10Y jumbo loan interest only. We often advise to go interest only and max out all retirement accounts with the funds otherwise allocated to the mortgage principal. For a customized proposal from a banker contact us anytime.

Senate Passes Conforming Loan Increase!

As part of the overall Economic Stimulus package the Senate voted and passed the provision within the bill to expand the conforming loan limits to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy conforming loans worth as much as $729,750 for loans made between July 31, 2008 and Dec. 31, 2008, an increase over the current $417,000 loan limit, a move that could help struggling homeowners to refinance jumbo loans at a lower interest rate. It will also allow the Federal Housing Administration to insure loans as high as $729,750 in expensive markets. To find your areas median home value visit the National Association of Realtors site. They have the most user friendly numbers.

This should be a welcome boost to home sales within the price range of the 125% upper limit for median value of a city. We don't expect a dramatic improvement in 30Y jumbo loan rates, most analysts are speculating that rates might improve by as much as .50% compared to where they are now. Historical low jumbo loan rates are available now on 5Y, 7Y and 10Y fixed most clients are locking in rates in the low to mid 6% area. This is down from the mid to high seven percent range over the last few months. The jumbo market most improved by the congressional action is likely to be the 30Y fixed as investors(banks, foreign investors, etc) don't have a great appetite for 30Y paper so they are demanding higher rates than what one would expect.

The conforming loan limit change doesn't happen till mid summer. For those in falling markets looking at their neighborhood drop in value it is wise to consider your refinance options now as equity is the most important factor in lending. To get the best loan terms your loan balance should be no more than 80% of the value of your home and of course having great credit gives you access to the best jumbo loan rates.

Confusion reigns as to FEDs Impact on Mortgage Rates.

Contrary to the conviction of deeply confused clients and reports by lazy news media, mortgage rates are unchanged, about 6.50 percent for the lowest-fee 30-year jumbo loan.

Yet, the media refer constantly to "dramatically lower mortgage rates." They are better, but ... drama? Freddie's average for the whole of 2007 was 6.74 percent. A quarter-percent drop is nice for buyers, and a help to a few jumbo loan refinancers, but no fire sale.

"How can it be the same ... !?!" says the client, after a cumulative 1.25 percent cut at the Fed in only eight days? Answers follow.

Brand-new January economic data are not that bad. They're not bad enough to justify the Fed's panic, let alone to anticipate more cuts. Payroll growth slipped to flat in January (negative 17,000 is within the huge range of error and revision), unemployment down to 4.9 percent in a workforce statistical quirk -- soft, but hardly a recession. The purchasing managers reported their first gain in six months, likewise soft, but with persistent strength in foreign orders. Fourth-quarter GDP grew by a mere 0.6 percent; however, aside from a temporary drawdown of business, inventories grew at 2 percent.

The Fed's form is disturbing to long-term investors. Central banking is not figure skating, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has departed his predecessor's 17 years of gradualism for lurching on the rink. A Fed that will lurch down will lurch up. This causes 10Y jumbo loans and 30Y fixed jumbo mortgage rates to stay elevated as who knows when the cuts will be taken back.

Investors bought long Treasurys and mortgages at these levels 2002-2004 because former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said after every meeting into 2006: Excessive monetary stimulus most likely will be "removed at a measured pace." Translation: You're safe for now, and we'll give you time to get out before we kill you.

In those late Greenspan years, deflation was the problem. Today, inflation is rising all over the world: Australia at a 16-year-high of 3.8 percent core; Europe at a 14-year-high of 3.2 percent; U.K. at 2.6 percent core; China at 6 percent-plus; and an economy completely out of control beginning to export inflation to us. Each time the Fed has lurched to a catch-up ease, all the way back to August, it has rescued stocks, commodities, oil, gold, and tanked the dollar.
I have chewed on the Fed for its inaction and credit-wreck oblivion. However, this situation is NOT a monetary problem: It is a banking-system near-insolvency that may morph into a recession, each making the other worse. The crying need for six months has been transparency of credit loss and bad-asset firewall. Cuts in the overnight cost of money may intercept recession, but inflation means that these cuts cannot be maintained or removed at a measured pace.

Two non-Fed forces holding up mortgage rates: Credit fear about Fannie and Freddie has the spread between mortgages and the all-defining 10-year Treasury (3.57 percent today) over 2 percent for the first time ever. Second, somebody by accident may arrive at an effective credit-wreck bailout: The giant bond insurers, Ambac and MBIA, may be resolved in days. If no collapse, then credit fear will give way to inflation fear.
The Fed's cuts have had a dramatic effect on ARM adjustments, and should revise estimates of housing doom to the better -- also reducing bond-market fear. This month, common one-year Libor-floating loans will adjust DOWN to 5.125 percent.

Foreclosure Business Booming

I couldn't make this up if I tried:
We won't debate the ethics or morals of the situation. But, many people could have avoided doing business with this company had they been proactive by refinancing before they were underwater or selling at the market price instead of chasing the market down, never getting an offer and falling behind with an adjustable loan. We live in an age of complex risk and not paying attention to your mortgage can lead to financial ruin.
That's just wrong on so many levels . .

FED Cut no help to jumbo fixed rates.

The Federal Reserve key interest rates another half-percentage point. The move was expected after last week’s surprise cut in an emergency session failed to rally markets and quiet recession chatter.

The central bank has lowered rates five times for a total of 1.75 percentage points since September, including the aggressive 0.75 percentage cut last week - the first time the Fed lowered rates in between meetings since the 2001 terrorist attacks..

The Fed’s decision to cut rates further Wednesday afternoon comes on the heels of disturbing economic reports published hours earlier. The reports indicate a sharp slowing of the economy.
U.S. economic growth slowed to a rate of 0.6 percent in the last quarter of 2007. The increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) fell short of economists’ expectations by half and many believe the GDP will be in the negative this quarter. Two straight quarters of negative GDP equals a recession.

Fixed Jumbo Mortgage rates have been rising steadily this week in anticipation of the Fed cuts. We have seen a slight improvement in the 5Y and 7Y jumbo loan arm rates for highly qualified clients with equity or large downpayments.

Conforming loan limit increase, two steps away.

Rates for some long-term mortgages are at their lowest levels in four years, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut some short-term interest rates Wednesday and proposals in Congress may soon allow thousands of jumbo loan borrowers to qualify for loans with lower interest rates.
The industry has not seen demand for jumbo mortgage loans at these levels since 2003.

Should you refinance?
The answer depends on a variety of factors: your' current loan terms, how long they plan to stay in your home, how much equity you have, your credit scores and more. It's deeply important to sit down and understand how all the pieces play together.

Help for the jumbo loan client is on the way. Economic stimulus legislation approved Tuesday in the U.S. House of Representatives includes a provision that would temporarily allow government-sponsored mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase the conforming loan limit up to $729,750. The new conforming loan limit change is being anxiously awaited by all market participants as it is seen as the best part of the stimulus package. People are not excited about a check for a few hundred dollars when the prospect of not being able to refinance is real for millions of prime borrowers in adjustable rates who have little to no equity. The new requirements at most banks is to have at least 10% equity at the time of purchase or refinance. The new conforming loan increase would allow up to 100% loan to value.

Traditionally, the gap between conforming and jumbo loan rates has been narrower. What the credit crunch has done is led to, effectively, a buyers' strike among investors that buy jumbo mortgages because they are not backed by an implied government guarantee like conforming loans. Until more investors opt to purchase bonds backed by jumbo loans, the wider-than-normal gap in rates will remain. The best rates are available within the 5 and 7Y fixed jumbo mortgage rate programs. Thirty year fixed money remains higher as investors don't have the appetite to lend large balance loans on a fixed basis in this environment. Investors believe rates should and could be higher in the future so they are offering ARMs. Many banks don't offer any 30Y fixed as a result of the interest rate risk.

The short-term rate-cut the Federal Reserve was expected to announce Wednesday would not have any direct effect on long-term jumbo mortgage rates, although it will affect rates for things like home equity lines of credit and consumer credit cards. Nonetheless, news about Fed actions often prompts homeowners to take action. This is especially important if home values have been soft or falling in your area as equity is more important in a refinance than FICO score for most large balance scenarios.

If Congress makes that change, possibly by mid-February, banks and investors will be inundated with refi business, we have seen a dramatic increase in applications since the Bush gave his economic stimulus speech two weeks ago and the stock market tanked following MLK Jr day. There is a window that's going to be there; we don't know how long it's going to be there and are advising clients to lock at these levels. Don't get greedy by holding out for a rate that may never come as falling values create a situation where clients rates are substantially driven by their lack of equity. Get a package in place right now. I would not wait. Good candidates for refinancing: having equity in your home.

With property values declining in so many markets, the main thing to look for is whether the equity is there. Those who have at least 20 percent equity in their home - that is, their loan balances are equal to 80 percent or less of their home's market value - will have the easiest time refinancing. In areas that some lenders have designated as "soft" or "declining" markets, where home values are sliding, borrowers must have even higher levels of equity before lenders will approve a loan.

Also factoring into the "to refi or not to refi" conundrum this time around is whether borrowers measure up to the newly tightened underwriting guidelines. The most competitive rates are available to those customers with credit scores of 720 and substantial verified assets in bank/brokerage accounts. Borrowers these days also need to be prepared to provide proof of their income and assets, and sometimes tax returns.

Refinancing might not be advisable - or possible - for homeowners with impaired credit, or those who can't provide documentation of their income, or who have little equity and live in what can be determined as a declining market. It is far better to know your choices now than to procrastinate and find out that recent home prices and lending guidelines prevent you from refinancing your jumbo mortgage. Look for the Senate to vote and Bush to signoff by mid Feb.

Conforming Loan Limit Increase and other ways to revive the patient.

It's always nice to take a step back every once in a while and try to see the bigger picture of what has happened in the past, and where we are right now. In my mind, when I do this I see so much stimulus injected into US economy and institutions and we aren't even in a recession yet, at least not in the minds of the organization that will ultimately declare it; the NBER. On a positive note, with the latest stimulus package there will be a temporary increase in the conforming loan limit for homebuyers; a positive incentive for those who both intend to purchase and can afford to purchase a home, especially here in Southern California where 50% of all jumbo loans are found. These jumbo loan changes should help affordability and ultimately help reduce record setting inventory in formally hot markets. Everything and anything can sell at the right price, econ 101.



Lets just list what stimulus we have seen since late 2007:

a) 175 basis points of cuts to fed funds rate; 1.75%

b) Cash injections into Merrill & Citigroup

c) Buyout of Countrywide Financial; whose stock price today is trading below the buyout price

d) Mortgage Rate Freeze Plan

e) Talks of Bond Insurer Bailout Plan; $15 Billion to cover Hundreds of Billions in potential losses, think of the failed Super SIV rescue plan that also boosted banks when announced

f) In Europe, bond bailout of Northern Rock by gov't to incentivize private takeover

g) Economic Stimulus Plan For Housing; make mortgages easier to get & cheaper

h) Economic Stimulus Plan For Biz; tax breaks

i) Economic Stimulus Plan For Tax Payers; checks to 117 million Americans

I'm sure I am missing a bunch of other cash injections to individual banks/brokerages, but am I missing any other major stimulus thus far? I think I got most of it. Now, again, there is still a debate about whether we are in a recession or not right now as chances are we won't find out until later on anyway. But forget that for a moment. Look at that list above! Are we really to believe that the economy is in fine shape with all this stimulus going on? How could we simply ignore the reasons for all this stimulus in the first place!

It's encouraging to see things happening, but will it all work? Will it stop defaults from rising? Will it cause more bubbles? Will it encourage a moral hazard and future reckless behavior? Will it stop housing from falling? Will it fix the credit markets? Will it fix the toxic waste holdings held on the books of financials? Will it really save the bond insurers? Will it stimulate consumer spending and consumption? Will it bail out those who made awful decisions? So many questions. So little answers!

With all this stimulus, it's not surprising that equity markets are bouncing here; but what I'm interested in is will this fix the problems we face without causing any future bubbles/inflation problems? Is this delaying the inevitable washout? All open for discussion as I wont give any predictions with so much uncertainty out there.

On a side note, the conforming loan limit increase moves the limit from $417,00 up to $730,000 until December 31st! The number varies per area based on 125% of median home values. The median in Los Angeles for example is just south of 500k. I think this is overall a good thing for client's but it does come with some question marks. Here are my thoughts:

POSITIVES: cheaper jumbo loan mortgages & cheaper fees for those serious buyers who have every intention of buying a new home. May increase purchase price budgets a bit with savings from taking on non-jumbo loan; hopefully with caution by the buyer not to exceed affordability. The experience of all the foreclosed families may prevent reckless buyers who decide to purchase based on this incentive alone but cant really afford it.

NEGATIVES: incentivizing homebuying by cheaper loans, how is this any different than what got us into this mess to begin with (no doc loans, option ARM's)? What happens if someone who is on the cusp of affording to buy, gets convinced to purchase due to this temporary offer? Will this setup future problems of distressed sellers should we indeed enter a recession? Will it really bring MORE buyers into our marketplace OR convince prospective buyers to increase their budgets dramatically thus rendering the investment unaffordable?

Overall, I would have think this is a positive for our marketplace. Since most people put max 20% down, and most condo buyers like to put only 10% down, we are looking at a target group of sub $785,000 for single family homes, and $695,000 or so for condos.
It will help those that have every intention of buying to 'pull the trigger'; hopefully without upping their budget too much! That's the only downfall I can see; over leveraging via a higher loan amount due to the projected 1% savings on the rate of the new conforming loan limit increase.
Where are we at in the real estate cycle and overall credit cycle?























Or is this the chart?:

FED Hits Panic Button. Jumbo Loan Rates at Historic Lows.

On my way into work this morning, I heard that Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Board cut the target rate for banks’ short-term lending to 3.5%. This makes it more worthwhile for banks to take on more risk with their money, lending it out in cases where they’ve been tight lately. The Fed announced this change between meetings, not at a meeting as normal announcements, in response to the free-fall that the world financial markets seem to be experiencing.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts today. You could argue that if the U.S. stock market doesn’t drop 5% as it was expected to do today without the emergency rate drop, investors don’t think that this move by the Federal Reserve will help solve the economic problems.

When the Fed rate drops, so do interest rates on savings accounts and jumbo loan rates drop as well right? Well not exactly, here is a chart of the FED Funds, Prime Rate and the Fannie Mae 30Y Fixed. Conforming loans generally move in lockstep with jumbo mortgage loans so they act as a good indicator.

I see a loose correlation but nothing that suggests that we will see mortgage rates below 6% on a 30Y fixed jumbo mortgage anytime soon. Of course if the sky does indeed fall then all bets are off. Rates are excellent by all historical standards and refinances should be considered especially into long term fixed loans and 10/1 ARMs. Have a prosperous day.

Let's use the US Government Credit Card.

The latest topic swirling around is the Bush proposal to put checks in the mailboxes of every taxpayer to stimulate the economy. That is equivalent of using the government HELOC to once again bail the republic out of the latest crisis. The government is 10 TRILLION dollars in debt now. That is what we all owe as of now. The recession could move into a depression and that is what Washington and Wall St are trying to avoid at all cost.


The check in every mailbox reminds me of Hebert Hoover who won election in 1928 on the slogan, "a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." Seven months after his inauguration the 1929 crash occurred and the country went into the great depression. Any parallels? Winston Churchill said, " A nation that forgets it's past is doomed to repeat it." I am an optimist by nature but the fiscal meltdown that is occurring throughout the economy coupled with our mind numbing future obligations to Medicare and Social Security make me wonder when the party will end and the bill finally come due. Sober up and watch this video from 60 mins: